Advanced

Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched.

Johansson, Jacob LU and Jonzén, Niclas LU (2012) In Ecology Letters 15(8). p.881-888
Abstract
Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or... (More)
Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or counteracted during the ensuing evolutionary adaptation. We find in total seven qualitatively different population trajectories during the transition to a new evolutionary equilibrium. This surprising diversity of eco-evolutionary responses provides adaptive explanations to the observed variation in phenological responses to recent climate change. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, evolutionary game theory, life history, migration, phenology, timing
in
Ecology Letters
volume
15
issue
8
pages
881 - 888
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000305943000014
  • pmid:22676374
  • scopus:84863428624
ISSN
1461-023X
DOI
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01812.x
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
49ac8e9f-26f1-4402-8fa1-10694a283e29 (old id 2859676)
alternative location
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22676374?dopt=Abstract
date added to LUP
2012-09-05 13:59:35
date last changed
2017-01-01 03:41:36
@article{49ac8e9f-26f1-4402-8fa1-10694a283e29,
  abstract     = {Phenological changes are well documented biological effects of current climate change but their adaptive value and demographic consequences are poorly known. Game theoretical models have shown that deviating from the fitness-maximising phenology can be evolutionary stable under frequency-dependent selection. We study eco-evolutionary responses to climate change when the historical phenology is mismatched in this way. For illustration we model adaptation of arrival dates in migratory birds that compete for territories at their breeding grounds. We simulate climate change by shifting the timing and the length of the favourable season for breeding. We show that initial trends in changes of population densities can be either reinforced or counteracted during the ensuing evolutionary adaptation. We find in total seven qualitatively different population trajectories during the transition to a new evolutionary equilibrium. This surprising diversity of eco-evolutionary responses provides adaptive explanations to the observed variation in phenological responses to recent climate change.},
  author       = {Johansson, Jacob and Jonzén, Niclas},
  issn         = {1461-023X},
  keyword      = {Climate change,evolutionary game theory,life history,migration,phenology,timing},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {8},
  pages        = {881--888},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Ecology Letters},
  title        = {Game theory sheds new light on ecological responses to current climate change when phenology is historically mismatched.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01812.x},
  volume       = {15},
  year         = {2012},
}