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Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas

Semadeni Davies, Annette LU (2003) In Water Science and Technology 48(9). p.165-175
Abstract
Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global... (More)
Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
sensitivity, mitigation, impacts, adaptation, climate scenarios, uncertainty, analysis, socio-economic scenarios
in
Water Science and Technology
volume
48
issue
9
pages
165 - 175
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • pmid:14703150
  • wos:000187915400017
  • scopus:0346724687
ISSN
0273-1223
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ceb3c216-02f1-4dfd-b5bf-7bc5bfa5dd04 (old id 289946)
alternative location
http://www.iwaponline.com/wst/04809/wst048090165.htm
date added to LUP
2007-09-21 12:23:53
date last changed
2018-05-29 12:14:11
@article{ceb3c216-02f1-4dfd-b5bf-7bc5bfa5dd04,
  abstract     = {Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen.},
  author       = {Semadeni Davies, Annette},
  issn         = {0273-1223},
  keyword      = {sensitivity,mitigation,impacts,adaptation,climate scenarios,uncertainty,analysis,socio-economic scenarios},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {9},
  pages        = {165--175},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Water Science and Technology},
  title        = {Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas},
  volume       = {48},
  year         = {2003},
}