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Utilization of genetic data can improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes incidence in a Swedish cohort

Zarkoob, Hadi; Lewinsky, Sarah; Almgren, Peter LU ; Melander, Olle LU and Fakhrai-Rad1, Hossein (2017) In PLoS ONE 12(7).
Abstract

The aim of this study was to measure the impact of genetic data in improving the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cohort. The current study was performed in 3,426 Swedish individuals and utilizes of a set of genetic and environmental risk data. We first validated our environmental risk model by comparing it to both the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and the T2D risk model derived from the Framingham Offspring Study. The area under the curve (AUC) for our environmental model was 0.72 [95% CI, 0.69–0.74], which was significantly better than both the Finnish (0.64 [95% CI, 0.61–0.66], p-value < 1 x 10?4) and Framingham (0.69 [95% CI, 0.66–0.71], p-value = 0.0017) risk scores. We then... (More)

The aim of this study was to measure the impact of genetic data in improving the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cohort. The current study was performed in 3,426 Swedish individuals and utilizes of a set of genetic and environmental risk data. We first validated our environmental risk model by comparing it to both the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and the T2D risk model derived from the Framingham Offspring Study. The area under the curve (AUC) for our environmental model was 0.72 [95% CI, 0.69–0.74], which was significantly better than both the Finnish (0.64 [95% CI, 0.61–0.66], p-value < 1 x 10?4) and Framingham (0.69 [95% CI, 0.66–0.71], p-value = 0.0017) risk scores. We then verified that the genetic data has a statistically significant positive correlation with incidence of T2D in the studied population. We also verified that adding genetic data slightly but statistically increased the AUC of a model based only on environmental risk factors (RFs, AUC shift +1.0% from 0.72 to 0.73, p-value = 0.042). To study the dependence of the results on the environmental RFs, we divided the population into two equally sized risk groups based only on their environmental risk and repeated the same analysis within each subpop-ulation. While there is a statistically significant positive correlation between the genetic data and incidence of T2D in both environmental risk categories, the positive shift in the AUC remains statistically significant only in the category with the lower environmental risk. These results demonstrate that genetic data can be used to increase the accuracy of T2D prediction. Also, the data suggests that genetic data is more valuable in improving T2D prediction in populations with lower environmental risk. This suggests that the impact of genetic data depends on the environmental risk of the studied population and thus genetic association studies should be performed in light of the underlying environmental risk of the population.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
PLoS ONE
volume
12
issue
7
publisher
Public Library of Science
external identifiers
  • scopus:85023618606
  • wos:000405649600021
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0180180
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2a380463-42c9-49eb-9dea-fe6cbd13caad
date added to LUP
2017-08-04 11:22:29
date last changed
2017-09-18 11:40:58
@article{2a380463-42c9-49eb-9dea-fe6cbd13caad,
  abstract     = {<p>The aim of this study was to measure the impact of genetic data in improving the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cohort. The current study was performed in 3,426 Swedish individuals and utilizes of a set of genetic and environmental risk data. We first validated our environmental risk model by comparing it to both the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and the T2D risk model derived from the Framingham Offspring Study. The area under the curve (AUC) for our environmental model was 0.72 [95% CI, 0.69–0.74], which was significantly better than both the Finnish (0.64 [95% CI, 0.61–0.66], p-value &lt; 1 x 10<sup>?4</sup>) and Framingham (0.69 [95% CI, 0.66–0.71], p-value = 0.0017) risk scores. We then verified that the genetic data has a statistically significant positive correlation with incidence of T2D in the studied population. We also verified that adding genetic data slightly but statistically increased the AUC of a model based only on environmental risk factors (RFs, AUC shift +1.0% from 0.72 to 0.73, p-value = 0.042). To study the dependence of the results on the environmental RFs, we divided the population into two equally sized risk groups based only on their environmental risk and repeated the same analysis within each subpop-ulation. While there is a statistically significant positive correlation between the genetic data and incidence of T2D in both environmental risk categories, the positive shift in the AUC remains statistically significant only in the category with the lower environmental risk. These results demonstrate that genetic data can be used to increase the accuracy of T2D prediction. Also, the data suggests that genetic data is more valuable in improving T2D prediction in populations with lower environmental risk. This suggests that the impact of genetic data depends on the environmental risk of the studied population and thus genetic association studies should be performed in light of the underlying environmental risk of the population.</p>},
  articleno    = {e0180180},
  author       = {Zarkoob, Hadi and Lewinsky, Sarah and Almgren, Peter and Melander, Olle and Fakhrai-Rad1, Hossein},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {07},
  number       = {7},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science},
  series       = {PLoS ONE},
  title        = {Utilization of genetic data can improve the prediction of type 2 diabetes incidence in a Swedish cohort},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0180180},
  volume       = {12},
  year         = {2017},
}