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Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change

Heikkinen, Risto K.; Luoto, Miska; Araujo, Miguel B.; Virkkala, Raimo; Thuiller, Wilfried and Sykes, Martin LU (2006) In Progress in Physical Geography 30(6). p.751-777
Abstract
Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires... (More)
Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
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Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
uncertainty, species distribution model, scale, niche properties, modelling methods, model performance, land cover, bioclimatic model, climate change, validation, species geography
in
Progress in Physical Geography
volume
30
issue
6
pages
751 - 777
publisher
SAGE Publications Inc.
external identifiers
  • wos:000243236600004
  • scopus:33748537148
ISSN
1477-0296
DOI
10.1177/0309133306071957
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2d1d524b-78cd-4c7e-aa50-931a40a5ac87 (old id 679873)
date added to LUP
2008-01-04 10:00:32
date last changed
2019-08-18 03:26:11
@article{2d1d524b-78cd-4c7e-aa50-931a40a5ac87,
  abstract     = {Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic 'envelope' models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.},
  author       = {Heikkinen, Risto K. and Luoto, Miska and Araujo, Miguel B. and Virkkala, Raimo and Thuiller, Wilfried and Sykes, Martin},
  issn         = {1477-0296},
  keyword      = {uncertainty,species distribution model,scale,niche properties,modelling methods,model performance,land cover,bioclimatic model,climate change,validation,species geography},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {6},
  pages        = {751--777},
  publisher    = {SAGE Publications Inc.},
  series       = {Progress in Physical Geography},
  title        = {Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133306071957},
  volume       = {30},
  year         = {2006},
}