Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
(2016) In Nature Climate Change 6(12). p.1130-1136- Abstract
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical... (More)
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
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- author
- publishing date
- 2016-11-24
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- Nature Climate Change
- volume
- 6
- issue
- 12
- pages
- 7 pages
- publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:84997113412
- ISSN
- 1758-678X
- DOI
- 10.1038/nclimate3115
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- id
- 2f543143-e16c-459e-9622-ca35a46153d3
- date added to LUP
- 2020-11-19 23:16:22
- date last changed
- 2023-12-19 08:50:36
@article{2f543143-e16c-459e-9622-ca35a46153d3,
abstract = {{<p>The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO 2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify 'method uncertainty' in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.</p>}},
author = {{Liu, Bing and Asseng, Senthold and Ewert, Frank and Elliott, Joshua and Lobell, David B. and Martre, Pierre and Ruane, Alex C. and Wallach, Daniel and Jones, James W. and Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Aggarwal, Pramod K. and Alderman, Phillip D. and Anothai, Jakarat and Basso, Bruno and Biernath, Christian and Cammarano, Davide and Challinor, Andy and Deryng, Delphine and De Sanctis, Giacomo and Doltra, Jordi and Fereres, Elias and Folberth, Christian and Garcia-Vila, Margarita and Gayler, Sebastian and Hoogenboom, Gerrit and Hunt, Leslie A. and Izaurralde, Roberto C. and Jabloun, Mohamed and Jones, Curtis D. and Kersebaum, Kurt C. and Kimball, Bruce A. and Koehler, Ann Kristin and Kumar, Soora Naresh and Nendel, Claas and O'Leary, Garry J. and Olesen, Jørgen E. and Ottman, Michael J. and Palosuo, Taru and Prasad, P. V.Vara and Priesack, Eckart and Pugh, Thomas A.M. and Reynolds, Matthew and Rezaei, Ehsan E. and Rötter, Reimund P. and Schmid, Erwin and Semenov, Mikhail A. and Shcherbak, Iurii and Stehfest, Elke and Stöckle, Claudio O. and Stratonovitch, Pierre and Streck, Thilo and Supit, Iwan and Tao, Fulu and Thorburn, Peter and Waha, Katharina and Wall, Gerard W. and Wang, Enli and White, Jeffrey W. and Wolf, Joost and Zhao, Zhigan and Zhu, Yan}},
issn = {{1758-678X}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{11}},
number = {{12}},
pages = {{1130--1136}},
publisher = {{Nature Publishing Group}},
series = {{Nature Climate Change}},
title = {{Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3115}},
doi = {{10.1038/nclimate3115}},
volume = {{6}},
year = {{2016}},
}