Advanced

New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes

Jin, Hongxiao LU ; Jönsson, Anna Maria LU ; Olsson, Cecilia LU ; Lindström, Johan LU ; Jönsson, Per and Eklundh, Lars LU (2019) In International Journal of Biometeorology
Abstract


Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the... (More)


Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year
−1
. The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C
−1
to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm
−1
to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C
−1
by winter warming and 0.56 day °C
−1
by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
epub
subject
keywords
Climate sensitivity, Northern European latitudes, Plant phenology index (PPI), Remote sensing, Spring phenology trend
in
International Journal of Biometeorology
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • scopus:85062153855
ISSN
0020-7128
DOI
10.1007/s00484-019-01690-5
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2f8a159b-6e4d-4de2-8c1c-dd24c9b6782c
date added to LUP
2019-03-06 14:09:40
date last changed
2019-04-02 04:14:32
@article{2f8a159b-6e4d-4de2-8c1c-dd24c9b6782c,
  abstract     = {<p><br>
                                                         Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (&gt; 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year                             <br>
                            <sup>−1</sup><br>
                                                         . The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C                             <br>
                            <sup>−1</sup><br>
                                                          to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm                             <br>
                            <sup>−1</sup><br>
                                                          to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C                             <br>
                            <sup>−1</sup><br>
                                                          by winter warming and 0.56 day °C                             <br>
                            <sup>−1</sup><br>
                                                          by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.                         <br>
                        </p>},
  author       = {Jin, Hongxiao and Jönsson, Anna Maria and Olsson, Cecilia and Lindström, Johan and Jönsson, Per and Eklundh, Lars},
  issn         = {0020-7128},
  keyword      = {Climate sensitivity,Northern European latitudes,Plant phenology index (PPI),Remote sensing,Spring phenology trend},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {02},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {International Journal of Biometeorology},
  title        = {New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00484-019-01690-5},
  year         = {2019},
}