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Behavior underpins the predictive power of a trait-based model of butterfly movement

Evans, Luke C. ; Sibly, Richard M. ; Thorbek, Pernille ; Sims, Ian ; Oliver, Tom H. and Walters, Richard J. LU (2020) In Ecology and Evolution 10(7). p.3200-3208
Abstract

Dispersal ability is key to species persistence in times of environmental change. Assessing a species' vulnerability and response to anthropogenic changes is often performed using one of two methods: correlative approaches that infer dispersal potential based on traits, such as wingspan or an index of mobility derived from expert opinion, or a mechanistic modeling approach that extrapolates displacement rates from empirical data on short-term movements. Here, we compare and evaluate the success of the correlative and mechanistic approaches using a mechanistic random-walk model of butterfly movement that incorporates relationships between wingspan and sex-specific movement behaviors. The model was parameterized with new data collected on... (More)

Dispersal ability is key to species persistence in times of environmental change. Assessing a species' vulnerability and response to anthropogenic changes is often performed using one of two methods: correlative approaches that infer dispersal potential based on traits, such as wingspan or an index of mobility derived from expert opinion, or a mechanistic modeling approach that extrapolates displacement rates from empirical data on short-term movements. Here, we compare and evaluate the success of the correlative and mechanistic approaches using a mechanistic random-walk model of butterfly movement that incorporates relationships between wingspan and sex-specific movement behaviors. The model was parameterized with new data collected on four species of butterfly in the south of England, and we observe how wingspan relates to flight speeds, turning angles, flight durations, and displacement rates. We show that flight speeds and turning angles correlate with wingspan but that to achieve good prediction of displacement even over 10 min the model must also include details of sex- and species-specific movement behaviors. We discuss what factors are likely to differentially motivate the sexes and how these could be included in mechanistic models of dispersal to improve their use in ecological forecasting.

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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
body size, dispersal, Lepidoptera, motivation
in
Ecology and Evolution
volume
10
issue
7
pages
9 pages
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:85081366417
  • pmid:32273981
ISSN
2045-7758
DOI
10.1002/ece3.5957
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
2fb43f2d-1b01-431f-a0c9-a7ceeb77d3c7
date added to LUP
2020-04-10 17:16:36
date last changed
2020-07-11 03:00:45
@article{2fb43f2d-1b01-431f-a0c9-a7ceeb77d3c7,
  abstract     = {<p>Dispersal ability is key to species persistence in times of environmental change. Assessing a species' vulnerability and response to anthropogenic changes is often performed using one of two methods: correlative approaches that infer dispersal potential based on traits, such as wingspan or an index of mobility derived from expert opinion, or a mechanistic modeling approach that extrapolates displacement rates from empirical data on short-term movements. Here, we compare and evaluate the success of the correlative and mechanistic approaches using a mechanistic random-walk model of butterfly movement that incorporates relationships between wingspan and sex-specific movement behaviors. The model was parameterized with new data collected on four species of butterfly in the south of England, and we observe how wingspan relates to flight speeds, turning angles, flight durations, and displacement rates. We show that flight speeds and turning angles correlate with wingspan but that to achieve good prediction of displacement even over 10 min the model must also include details of sex- and species-specific movement behaviors. We discuss what factors are likely to differentially motivate the sexes and how these could be included in mechanistic models of dispersal to improve their use in ecological forecasting.</p>},
  author       = {Evans, Luke C. and Sibly, Richard M. and Thorbek, Pernille and Sims, Ian and Oliver, Tom H. and Walters, Richard J.},
  issn         = {2045-7758},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {7},
  pages        = {3200--3208},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Ecology and Evolution},
  title        = {Behavior underpins the predictive power of a trait-based model of butterfly movement},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5957},
  doi          = {10.1002/ece3.5957},
  volume       = {10},
  year         = {2020},
}