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Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

Miller, Paul LU and Smith, Benjamin LU (2012) In Ambio 41. p.281-291
Abstract
The Arctic land area has warmed by > 1 A degrees C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO2 for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The... (More)
The Arctic land area has warmed by > 1 A degrees C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO2 for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Arctic tundra vegetation, Climate change, Shrub expansion, Ecosystem, modelling, LPJ-GUESS, Biogeophysical feedbacks
in
Ambio
volume
41
pages
281 - 291
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000307285200011
  • scopus:84867478398
ISSN
0044-7447
DOI
10.1007/s13280-012-0306-1
project
BECC
MERGE
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
fe483e84-a648-4957-87ce-48e7ba67bd67 (old id 3073204)
date added to LUP
2012-09-26 07:56:37
date last changed
2017-10-22 04:21:18
@article{fe483e84-a648-4957-87ce-48e7ba67bd67,
  abstract     = {The Arctic land area has warmed by > 1 A degrees C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO2 for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.},
  author       = {Miller, Paul and Smith, Benjamin},
  issn         = {0044-7447},
  keyword      = {Arctic tundra vegetation,Climate change,Shrub expansion,Ecosystem,modelling,LPJ-GUESS,Biogeophysical feedbacks},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {281--291},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Ambio},
  title        = {Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0306-1},
  volume       = {41},
  year         = {2012},
}