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Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections

Ahlström, Anders LU ; Schurgers, Guy LU ; Arneth, Almut and Smith, Benjamin LU (2012) In Environmental Research Letters 7(4). p.044008-044008
Abstract
We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with... (More)
We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with tropical uncertainties these discrepancies accumulate over time, resulting in large differences in total carbon uptake over the coming century (−0.97–2.27 Pg C yr −1 during 2006–2100). The terrestrial biosphere becomes a net source of carbon in ten of the 18 simulations adding to the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, while the remaining eight simulations indicate an increased sink of carbon. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Environmental Research Letters
volume
7
issue
4
pages
044008 - 044008
publisher
IOP Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000312696400012
  • scopus:84867787251
ISSN
1748-9326
DOI
10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
64e7e342-b555-4a97-b68d-100cb2e3036b (old id 3168738)
alternative location
http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=4/a=044008
http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=4/a=044008
date added to LUP
2013-04-02 14:29:25
date last changed
2017-11-19 04:00:42
@article{64e7e342-b555-4a97-b68d-100cb2e3036b,
  abstract     = {We have investigated the spatio-temporal carbon balance patterns resulting from forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with output from 18 climate models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) ensemble. We found robust patterns in terms of an extra-tropical loss of carbon, except for a temperature induced shift in phenology, leading to an increased spring uptake of carbon. There are less robust patterns in the tropics, a result of disagreement in projections of precipitation and temperature. Although the simulations generally agree well in terms of the sign of the carbon balance change in the middle to high latitudes, there are large differences in the magnitude of the loss between simulations. Together with tropical uncertainties these discrepancies accumulate over time, resulting in large differences in total carbon uptake over the coming century (−0.97–2.27 Pg C yr −1 during 2006–2100). The terrestrial biosphere becomes a net source of carbon in ten of the 18 simulations adding to the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, while the remaining eight simulations indicate an increased sink of carbon.},
  author       = {Ahlström, Anders and Schurgers, Guy and Arneth, Almut and Smith, Benjamin},
  issn         = {1748-9326},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {044008--044008},
  publisher    = {IOP Publishing},
  series       = {Environmental Research Letters},
  title        = {Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008},
  volume       = {7},
  year         = {2012},
}