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A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

Langner, J.; Engardt, M.; Baklanov, A.; Christensen, J. H.; Gauss, M.; Geels, C.; Brandt Hedegaard, Gitte LU ; Nuterman, R.; Simpson, D. and Soares, J., et al. (2012) In Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12(21). p.10423-10440
Abstract
The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 20002009 and 2040-2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in... (More)
The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 20002009 and 2040-2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr(-1) for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region. In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily maximum show negative changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles indicating that climate impacts on O-3 could be especially important in connection with extreme summer events. (Less)
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type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
volume
12
issue
21
pages
10423 - 10440
publisher
Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh
external identifiers
  • wos:000310954400026
  • scopus:84863225685
ISSN
1680-7324
DOI
10.5194/acp-12-10423-2012
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
d1b34404-9661-482d-912e-e2b6d8c3a9cd (old id 3256169)
date added to LUP
2012-12-27 09:57:00
date last changed
2017-11-12 03:03:49
@article{d1b34404-9661-482d-912e-e2b6d8c3a9cd,
  abstract     = {The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 20002009 and 2040-2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr(-1) for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region. In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily maximum show negative changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles indicating that climate impacts on O-3 could be especially important in connection with extreme summer events.},
  author       = {Langner, J. and Engardt, M. and Baklanov, A. and Christensen, J. H. and Gauss, M. and Geels, C. and Brandt Hedegaard, Gitte and Nuterman, R. and Simpson, D. and Soares, J. and Sofiev, M. and Wind, P. and Zakey, A.},
  issn         = {1680-7324},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {21},
  pages        = {10423--10440},
  publisher    = {Copernicus Gesellschaft Mbh},
  series       = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
  title        = {A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-10423-2012},
  volume       = {12},
  year         = {2012},
}