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Risk assessment for optimal drought management of an integrated water resources system using a genetic algorithm

Merabtene, T; Kawamura, A; Jinno, K and Olsson, Jonas LU (2002) In Hydrological Processes 16(11). p.2189-2208
Abstract
A decision support system (DSS) is developed and applied to assess the susceptibility of water supply systems to droughts, and to aid decision-makers in determining optimal supply strategies. The DSS integrates three fundamental modules for water resources management: (1) a real time rainfall-runoff forecasting model enhanced by Kalman filtering; (2) a water demand forecast model; and (3) a reservoir operation model. Simulation and optimization procedures for the reservoir operation model are based on risk analysis to evaluate the system performance and to derive the most appropriate supply strategy of minimum risk, for the designed operating conditions. The optimization technique, based on genetic algorithms, introduces two new and... (More)
A decision support system (DSS) is developed and applied to assess the susceptibility of water supply systems to droughts, and to aid decision-makers in determining optimal supply strategies. The DSS integrates three fundamental modules for water resources management: (1) a real time rainfall-runoff forecasting model enhanced by Kalman filtering; (2) a water demand forecast model; and (3) a reservoir operation model. Simulation and optimization procedures for the reservoir operation model are based on risk analysis to evaluate the system performance and to derive the most appropriate supply strategy of minimum risk, for the designed operating conditions. The optimization technique, based on genetic algorithms, introduces two new and distinct features, with the aim of minimizing the risks of drought damage and improving the convergence of the model toward practical solutions. Firstly, risk-based measures of system performance, termed reliability, resiliency and vulnerability, are combined into a global risk index, referred to as the drought risk index (DRI). The DRI, formulated as a weighted function of the risk measures, serves as the objective function to be minimized during the search for the optimal operation. Secondly, in the genetic algorithm search, each new generation of water supply solutions is created from solutions with risk levels clustered inside a defined 'acceptable risk space'. In other words, the convergence of the algorithm is improved by retaining only those solutions with DRI values smaller than the maximum acceptable risk. As a case study, the DSS is applied to the water resources system in Fukuoka City, western Japan. The DSS is believed to be an efficient tool for the assessment of a sequence of water supply scenarios, leading to the improved utilization of existing water resources during drought. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
water supply scenarios, optimization, decision support system (DSS), integrated water resources management
in
Hydrological Processes
volume
16
issue
11
pages
2189 - 2208
publisher
John Wiley & Sons
external identifiers
  • wos:000177461900011
  • scopus:0036055121
ISSN
1099-1085
DOI
10.1002/hyp.1150
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4d56fe61-635d-4487-8653-08ca4ce0e704 (old id 331676)
date added to LUP
2007-11-02 11:49:18
date last changed
2017-12-10 03:45:05
@article{4d56fe61-635d-4487-8653-08ca4ce0e704,
  abstract     = {A decision support system (DSS) is developed and applied to assess the susceptibility of water supply systems to droughts, and to aid decision-makers in determining optimal supply strategies. The DSS integrates three fundamental modules for water resources management: (1) a real time rainfall-runoff forecasting model enhanced by Kalman filtering; (2) a water demand forecast model; and (3) a reservoir operation model. Simulation and optimization procedures for the reservoir operation model are based on risk analysis to evaluate the system performance and to derive the most appropriate supply strategy of minimum risk, for the designed operating conditions. The optimization technique, based on genetic algorithms, introduces two new and distinct features, with the aim of minimizing the risks of drought damage and improving the convergence of the model toward practical solutions. Firstly, risk-based measures of system performance, termed reliability, resiliency and vulnerability, are combined into a global risk index, referred to as the drought risk index (DRI). The DRI, formulated as a weighted function of the risk measures, serves as the objective function to be minimized during the search for the optimal operation. Secondly, in the genetic algorithm search, each new generation of water supply solutions is created from solutions with risk levels clustered inside a defined 'acceptable risk space'. In other words, the convergence of the algorithm is improved by retaining only those solutions with DRI values smaller than the maximum acceptable risk. As a case study, the DSS is applied to the water resources system in Fukuoka City, western Japan. The DSS is believed to be an efficient tool for the assessment of a sequence of water supply scenarios, leading to the improved utilization of existing water resources during drought.},
  author       = {Merabtene, T and Kawamura, A and Jinno, K and Olsson, Jonas},
  issn         = {1099-1085},
  keyword      = {water supply scenarios,optimization,decision support system (DSS),integrated water resources management},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {11},
  pages        = {2189--2208},
  publisher    = {John Wiley & Sons},
  series       = {Hydrological Processes},
  title        = {Risk assessment for optimal drought management of an integrated water resources system using a genetic algorithm},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1150},
  volume       = {16},
  year         = {2002},
}