Advanced

Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Allen, Jenica M.; Bolmgren, Kjell LU ; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crimmins, Theresa M. and Kraft, Nathan J. B., et al. (2012) In Ecosystems 15(8). p.1283-1294
Abstract
Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity... (More)
Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
, et al. (More)
(Less)
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
phenology, climate responders, NECTAR, PEP725, sensitivity, climate, change
in
Ecosystems
volume
15
issue
8
pages
1283 - 1294
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000312143300006
  • scopus:84870623852
ISSN
1432-9840
DOI
10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6eb76b0f-e620-444a-ac81-43a07d2d829c (old id 3367927)
date added to LUP
2013-02-01 09:32:45
date last changed
2017-11-12 03:41:11
@article{6eb76b0f-e620-444a-ac81-43a07d2d829c,
  abstract     = {Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.},
  author       = {Cook, Benjamin I. and Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. and Davies, T. Jonathan and Ault, Toby R. and Betancourt, Julio L. and Allen, Jenica M. and Bolmgren, Kjell and Cleland, Elsa E. and Crimmins, Theresa M. and Kraft, Nathan J. B. and Lancaster, Lesley T. and Mazer, Susan J. and McCabe, Gregory J. and McGill, Brian J. and Parmesan, Camille and Pau, Stephanie and Regetz, James and Salamin, Nicolas and Schwartz, Mark D. and Travers, Steven E.},
  issn         = {1432-9840},
  keyword      = {phenology,climate responders,NECTAR,PEP725,sensitivity,climate,change},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {8},
  pages        = {1283--1294},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Ecosystems},
  title        = {Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5},
  volume       = {15},
  year         = {2012},
}