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Regionalization of critical loads under uncertainty

Barkman, A; Warfvinge, Per LU and Sverdrup, Harald LU (1995) In Water, Air and Soil Pollution 85(4). p.2515-2520
Abstract
The steady-state model PROFILE was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations of critical loads of acidity and exceedances of forest soils for 128 sites in the province of Scania, southern Sweden. Statistical tests showed that 100 sites had normal distributed critical loads and exceedances and that the variance of these parameters was statistically equal for all sites. Pooled estimates df the standard deviation was 0.19 and 0.31 kmol(c) ha(-1) yr(-1) for the critical loads and exceedances, respectively. Introduction of uncertainties, expressed as confidence intervals, in the cumulative distribution function for critical loads showed that overlaps between percentiles were substantial. The 5%-ile was systematically equal to the 57%-ile using a... (More)
The steady-state model PROFILE was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations of critical loads of acidity and exceedances of forest soils for 128 sites in the province of Scania, southern Sweden. Statistical tests showed that 100 sites had normal distributed critical loads and exceedances and that the variance of these parameters was statistically equal for all sites. Pooled estimates df the standard deviation was 0.19 and 0.31 kmol(c) ha(-1) yr(-1) for the critical loads and exceedances, respectively. Introduction of uncertainties, expressed as confidence intervals, in the cumulative distribution function for critical loads showed that overlaps between percentiles were substantial. The 5%-ile was systematically equal to the 57%-ile using a 67% confidence interval and equal to the 87%-ile when a 95% confidence level was chosen. The overlaps of percentiles cause a reduction of acidic deposition according to the mean value of the 5%-ile to protect only 68% of the ecosystem area with an 84% probability and not a guaranteed protection of 95% as if uncertainties did not exist. Thus, uncertainties make it possible to advocate reductions to levels of deposition below the 5%-ile of critical loads. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
regionalization, critical loads, forest, uncertainty, risk assessment
in
Water, Air and Soil Pollution
volume
85
issue
4
pages
2515 - 2520
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:A1995UE15800108
  • scopus:0029635889
ISSN
1573-2932
DOI
10.1007/BF01186212
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
8a2a601c-f9b6-423f-a9f1-50f69d2164af (old id 3917078)
date added to LUP
2013-07-03 10:31:23
date last changed
2017-01-01 04:32:59
@article{8a2a601c-f9b6-423f-a9f1-50f69d2164af,
  abstract     = {The steady-state model PROFILE was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations of critical loads of acidity and exceedances of forest soils for 128 sites in the province of Scania, southern Sweden. Statistical tests showed that 100 sites had normal distributed critical loads and exceedances and that the variance of these parameters was statistically equal for all sites. Pooled estimates df the standard deviation was 0.19 and 0.31 kmol(c) ha(-1) yr(-1) for the critical loads and exceedances, respectively. Introduction of uncertainties, expressed as confidence intervals, in the cumulative distribution function for critical loads showed that overlaps between percentiles were substantial. The 5%-ile was systematically equal to the 57%-ile using a 67% confidence interval and equal to the 87%-ile when a 95% confidence level was chosen. The overlaps of percentiles cause a reduction of acidic deposition according to the mean value of the 5%-ile to protect only 68% of the ecosystem area with an 84% probability and not a guaranteed protection of 95% as if uncertainties did not exist. Thus, uncertainties make it possible to advocate reductions to levels of deposition below the 5%-ile of critical loads.},
  author       = {Barkman, A and Warfvinge, Per and Sverdrup, Harald},
  issn         = {1573-2932},
  keyword      = {regionalization,critical loads,forest,uncertainty,risk assessment},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {2515--2520},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Water, Air and Soil Pollution},
  title        = {Regionalization of critical loads under uncertainty},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01186212},
  volume       = {85},
  year         = {1995},
}