Advanced

Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching

Blanke, Jan Hendrik LU ; Olin, Stefan LU ; Stürck, Julia; Sahlin, Ullrika LU ; Lindeskog, Mats LU ; Helming, John and Lehsten, Veiko LU (2017) In Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 239. p.385-398
Abstract

In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in... (More)

In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.

(Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Climate change, Fertilization, Land-use intensity projections, LPJ-GUESS, Nitrogen leaching, Trade-offs
in
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
volume
239
pages
14 pages
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85012942138
  • wos:000397550100040
ISSN
0167-8809
DOI
10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3bc2a428-903a-417c-858a-d7dfe8e0b890
date added to LUP
2017-02-27 12:37:34
date last changed
2018-01-07 11:52:51
@article{3bc2a428-903a-417c-858a-d7dfe8e0b890,
  abstract     = {<p>In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO<sub>2</sub> (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.</p>},
  author       = {Blanke, Jan Hendrik and Olin, Stefan and Stürck, Julia and Sahlin, Ullrika and Lindeskog, Mats and Helming, John and Lehsten, Veiko},
  issn         = {0167-8809},
  keyword      = {Climate change,Fertilization,Land-use intensity projections,LPJ-GUESS,Nitrogen leaching,Trade-offs},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {02},
  pages        = {385--398},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment},
  title        = {Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038},
  volume       = {239},
  year         = {2017},
}