Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching
Blanke, Jan Hendrik LU ; Olin, Stefan LU ; Stürck, Julia ; Sahlin, Ullrika LU
; Lindeskog, Mats
LU
; Helming, John
and Lehsten, Veiko
LU
(2017)
In Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
239.
p.385-398
- Abstract
In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in... (More)
In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO2 (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.
(Less)
- author
- Blanke, Jan Hendrik
LU
; Olin, Stefan
LU
; Stürck, Julia
; Sahlin, Ullrika
LU
; Lindeskog, Mats
LU
; Helming, John
and Lehsten, Veiko
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2017-02-15
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Climate change, Fertilization, Land-use intensity projections, LPJ-GUESS, Nitrogen leaching, Trade-offs
- in
- Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
- volume
- 239
- pages
- 14 pages
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:85012942138
- wos:000397550100040
- ISSN
- 0167-8809
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 3bc2a428-903a-417c-858a-d7dfe8e0b890
- date added to LUP
- 2017-02-27 12:37:34
- date last changed
- 2024-06-23 12:33:47
@article{3bc2a428-903a-417c-858a-d7dfe8e0b890,
abstract = {{<p>In this study, a global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is forced with spatial information (Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) 2 level) of land-use intensity change in the form of nitrogen (N) fertilization derived from a model chain which informed the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. We analysed the combined role of climate change and land-use intensity change for trade-offs between agricultural yield and N leaching in the European Union under two plausible scenarios up until 2040. Furthermore, we assessed both driver importance and uncertainty in future trends based on an alternative land-use intensity dataset derived from an integrated assessment model. LPJ-GUESS simulated an increase in wheat and maize yield but also N leaching for most regions when driven by changes in land-use intensity and climate under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5, N leaching is reduced in 53% of the regions while there is a trade-off in crop productivity. The most important factors influencing yield were CO<sub>2</sub> (wheat) and climate (maize), but N application almost equaled these in importance. For N leaching, N application was the most important factor, followed by climate. Therefore, using a constant N application dataset in the absence of future projections has a substantial effect on simulated ecosystem responses, especially for maize yield and N leaching. This study is a first assessment of future N leaching and yield responses based on projections of climate and land-use intensity. It further highlights the importance of accounting for changes in future N applications and land-use intensity in general when evaluating environmental impacts over long time periods.</p>}},
author = {{Blanke, Jan Hendrik and Olin, Stefan and Stürck, Julia and Sahlin, Ullrika and Lindeskog, Mats and Helming, John and Lehsten, Veiko}},
issn = {{0167-8809}},
keywords = {{Climate change; Fertilization; Land-use intensity projections; LPJ-GUESS; Nitrogen leaching; Trade-offs}},
language = {{eng}},
month = {{02}},
pages = {{385--398}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment}},
title = {{Assessing the impact of changes in land-use intensity and climate on simulated trade-offs between crop yield and nitrogen leaching}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.agee.2017.01.038}},
volume = {{239}},
year = {{2017}},
}