A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels
(2002) In International Journal of Forecasting 18(1). p.19-30- Abstract
Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are... (More)
Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small.
(Less)
- author
- Brännäs, Kurt ; Hellstrom, Jorgen and Nordstrom, Jonas LU
- publishing date
- 2002
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- in
- International Journal of Forecasting
- volume
- 18
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 12 pages
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:0036150482
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- DOI
- 10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00104-2
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- no
- additional info
- Comments on earlier versions of the paper by Runar Brännlund, Colin Cameron, Stefan Hochguertel, participants at the Baltic–Nordic Econometrics Conference 1999, the European Meeting of the Econometric Society 1999, and two anonymous referees have improved the paper.
- id
- 3f03aa87-7b29-4418-aa0b-168c36f25d34
- date added to LUP
- 2025-08-05 13:50:47
- date last changed
- 2025-08-05 15:29:02
@article{3f03aa87-7b29-4418-aa0b-168c36f25d34,
abstract = {{<p>Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect mean check-in and the check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables are small.</p>}},
author = {{Brännäs, Kurt and Hellstrom, Jorgen and Nordstrom, Jonas}},
issn = {{0169-2070}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{1}},
pages = {{19--30}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{International Journal of Forecasting}},
title = {{A new approach to modelling and forecasting monthly guest nights in hotels}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00104-2}},
doi = {{10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00104-2}},
volume = {{18}},
year = {{2002}},
}