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Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming

Marshall, Dustin J ; Pettersen, Amanda K LU ; Bode, Michael and White, Craig R (2020) In Nature Ecology and Evolution 4(3). p.406-411
Abstract

Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates... (More)

Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R2 ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.

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publication status
published
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in
Nature Ecology and Evolution
volume
4
issue
3
pages
6 pages
publisher
Nature Publishing Group
external identifiers
  • scopus:85081007183
  • pmid:32127682
ISSN
2397-334X
DOI
10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
3f5bf428-f0fa-480d-a34a-e3c06f6ea32f
date added to LUP
2020-03-06 08:40:51
date last changed
2021-03-31 01:29:39
@article{3f5bf428-f0fa-480d-a34a-e3c06f6ea32f,
  abstract     = {<p>Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R2 ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.</p>},
  author       = {Marshall, Dustin J and Pettersen, Amanda K and Bode, Michael and White, Craig R},
  issn         = {2397-334X},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {406--411},
  publisher    = {Nature Publishing Group},
  series       = {Nature Ecology and Evolution},
  title        = {Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9},
  doi          = {10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9},
  volume       = {4},
  year         = {2020},
}