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Simulating Regional Vegetation-climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications

Snell, Rebecca S. ; Cowling, Sharon A. and Smith, Benjamin LU (2013) In Biotropica 45(5). p.567-577
Abstract
Regional vegetation-climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation-climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ-GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ-GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r=0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and... (More)
Regional vegetation-climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation-climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ-GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ-GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r=0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over-simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non-parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil. (Less)
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author
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organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
fire dynamics, Kappa statistic, leaf area index, LPJ-GUESS, plant, functional types, remote-sensing, tropical and arid ecosystems
in
Biotropica
volume
45
issue
5
pages
567 - 577
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000323829800005
  • scopus:84883446898
ISSN
0006-3606
DOI
10.1111/btp.12054
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c5010b0c-9c4d-4322-919d-c2a2c0cea939 (old id 4106582)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 14:44:26
date last changed
2020-01-12 16:58:33
@article{c5010b0c-9c4d-4322-919d-c2a2c0cea939,
  abstract     = {Regional vegetation-climate modelling studies have typically focused on boreal or temperate ecosystems in North America and Europe, almost completely overlooking tropical ecosystems. We present the first results of simulated regional vegetation-climate dynamics in Middle America as simulated by the model, LPJ-GUESS. The Kappa statistic indicated poor agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.301. When we modified the Kappa statistic by aggregating cell sizes and using generalized biomes, the Kappa value increased to 0.543, indicating a fair agreement. Total LAI simulated from LPJ-GUESS was strongly correlated to remotely sensed LAI values (r=0.75). Our simulations indicate that fire frequency was overestimated in tropical moist forests and underestimated in savannas. This underestimation of fire resulted in an over-simulation of dry tropical forest at the expense of savanna. We highlight additional reasons for the initially poor representation of vegetation in Middle America, including factors such as non-parameterized plant functional types (desert shrub, cacti, and other succulents), rugged topography, and an insufficient representation of soil.},
  author       = {Snell, Rebecca S. and Cowling, Sharon A. and Smith, Benjamin},
  issn         = {0006-3606},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {5},
  pages        = {567--577},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Biotropica},
  title        = {Simulating Regional Vegetation-climate Dynamics for Middle America: Tropical Versus Temperate Applications},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/btp.12054},
  doi          = {10.1111/btp.12054},
  volume       = {45},
  year         = {2013},
}