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Relative fatality risk curve to describe the effect of change in the impact speed on fatality risk of pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle.

Kröyer, Höskuldur LU ; Jonsson, Thomas and Varhelyi, Andras LU (2014) In Accident Analysis and Prevention 62. p.143-152
Abstract
Models describing the relation between impact speed and fatality risk for pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle have frequently been used by practitioners and scientists in applying an S curve to visualize the importance of speed for the chance of survival. Recent studies have suggested that these risk curves are biased and do not give representative risk values. These studies present new fatality risk curves that show much lower risks of fatality than before, which has caused confusion and misconceptions about how these new curves should be interpreted, and how this should affect speed management policy. The aim here is to deepen the understanding of the implications this new knowledge has for urban speed policies by analyzing (1) what... (More)
Models describing the relation between impact speed and fatality risk for pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle have frequently been used by practitioners and scientists in applying an S curve to visualize the importance of speed for the chance of survival. Recent studies have suggested that these risk curves are biased and do not give representative risk values. These studies present new fatality risk curves that show much lower risks of fatality than before, which has caused confusion and misconceptions about how these new curves should be interpreted, and how this should affect speed management policy. The aim here is to deepen the understanding of the implications this new knowledge has for urban speed policies by analyzing (1) what the most reliable knowledge is for this relation today and what limitations it has, (2) how these risk curves are interpreted today, and what limitations this interpretation has and (3) what the risk curves say about the importance of speed and speed changes. This paper proposes an additional tool, the relative fatality risk curve, to help prevent misconceptions. The proposed relative risk ratios and curves show that, even though the most recent results indicate that the risk is lower than assumed by the older models, the fatality risk is still as sensitive to speed changes as before. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Accident Analysis and Prevention
volume
62
pages
143 - 152
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000329599800017
  • pmid:24144499
  • scopus:84886666314
ISSN
1879-2057
DOI
10.1016/j.aap.2013.09.007
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
24a9312b-13e7-4e7f-be8c-6199c77f99a2 (old id 4143141)
date added to LUP
2013-11-15 11:06:01
date last changed
2017-11-05 03:16:51
@article{24a9312b-13e7-4e7f-be8c-6199c77f99a2,
  abstract     = {Models describing the relation between impact speed and fatality risk for pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle have frequently been used by practitioners and scientists in applying an S curve to visualize the importance of speed for the chance of survival. Recent studies have suggested that these risk curves are biased and do not give representative risk values. These studies present new fatality risk curves that show much lower risks of fatality than before, which has caused confusion and misconceptions about how these new curves should be interpreted, and how this should affect speed management policy. The aim here is to deepen the understanding of the implications this new knowledge has for urban speed policies by analyzing (1) what the most reliable knowledge is for this relation today and what limitations it has, (2) how these risk curves are interpreted today, and what limitations this interpretation has and (3) what the risk curves say about the importance of speed and speed changes. This paper proposes an additional tool, the relative fatality risk curve, to help prevent misconceptions. The proposed relative risk ratios and curves show that, even though the most recent results indicate that the risk is lower than assumed by the older models, the fatality risk is still as sensitive to speed changes as before.},
  author       = {Kröyer, Höskuldur and Jonsson, Thomas and Varhelyi, Andras},
  issn         = {1879-2057},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {143--152},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Accident Analysis and Prevention},
  title        = {Relative fatality risk curve to describe the effect of change in the impact speed on fatality risk of pedestrians struck by a motor vehicle.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2013.09.007},
  volume       = {62},
  year         = {2014},
}