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Bounding defaults in egress models

Gwynne, Steven M V; Kuligowski, Erica; Spearpoint, Michael and Ronchi, Enrico LU (2015) In Fire and Materials 39(4). p.335-352
Abstract
Egress model developers are in a difficult position. It is in their interest to develop models that are simplified representations of reality and at the same time reduce inadvertent misuse. While default values enable immediate (i.e. out-of-the-box) use of models without in-depth familiarization with modelling assumptions, defaults often represent optimistic and/or even unrealistic evacuee behaviours. In this paper, the term ‘default’ relates to a preset, fixed setting or value (or distribution) for a parameter or algorithm. Most egress models provide default values for five core behavioural elements: pre-evacuation time, travel speeds, route usage, route availability and flow conditions. These behavioural elements typically need to be... (More)
Egress model developers are in a difficult position. It is in their interest to develop models that are simplified representations of reality and at the same time reduce inadvertent misuse. While default values enable immediate (i.e. out-of-the-box) use of models without in-depth familiarization with modelling assumptions, defaults often represent optimistic and/or even unrealistic evacuee behaviours. In this paper, the term ‘default’ relates to a preset, fixed setting or value (or distribution) for a parameter or algorithm. Most egress models provide default values for five core behavioural elements: pre-evacuation time, travel speeds, route usage, route availability and flow conditions. These behavioural elements typically need to be represented in order for the model to function. The authors suggest that bounding default settings, rather than optimistic values, should be provided for each behavioural element. Here, a bounding default setting is a value derived from relevant empirical data that prolongs the overall evacuation time produced for a particular design. If a user wishes to decrease the conservative nature of a setting, he or she would be required to justify the modification of the bounding default value(s). This approach allows immediate model use but forces the user to modify the settings to obtain credible design scenarios. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
emergency evacuation, egress modelling, human behaviour in fire, model defaults
in
Fire and Materials
volume
39
issue
4
pages
335 - 352
publisher
John Wiley & Sons
external identifiers
  • wos:000353338600005
  • scopus:84928208815
ISSN
1099-1018
DOI
10.1002/fam.2212
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
c1e01823-617d-4675-9d94-ddc46f6b141a (old id 4178336)
date added to LUP
2013-11-29 11:33:07
date last changed
2017-01-01 04:16:20
@article{c1e01823-617d-4675-9d94-ddc46f6b141a,
  abstract     = {Egress model developers are in a difficult position. It is in their interest to develop models that are simplified representations of reality and at the same time reduce inadvertent misuse. While default values enable immediate (i.e. out-of-the-box) use of models without in-depth familiarization with modelling assumptions, defaults often represent optimistic and/or even unrealistic evacuee behaviours. In this paper, the term ‘default’ relates to a preset, fixed setting or value (or distribution) for a parameter or algorithm. Most egress models provide default values for five core behavioural elements: pre-evacuation time, travel speeds, route usage, route availability and flow conditions. These behavioural elements typically need to be represented in order for the model to function. The authors suggest that bounding default settings, rather than optimistic values, should be provided for each behavioural element. Here, a bounding default setting is a value derived from relevant empirical data that prolongs the overall evacuation time produced for a particular design. If a user wishes to decrease the conservative nature of a setting, he or she would be required to justify the modification of the bounding default value(s). This approach allows immediate model use but forces the user to modify the settings to obtain credible design scenarios.},
  author       = {Gwynne, Steven M V and Kuligowski, Erica and Spearpoint, Michael and Ronchi, Enrico},
  issn         = {1099-1018},
  keyword      = {emergency evacuation,egress modelling,human behaviour in fire,model defaults},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {4},
  pages        = {335--352},
  publisher    = {John Wiley & Sons},
  series       = {Fire and Materials},
  title        = {Bounding defaults in egress models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fam.2212},
  volume       = {39},
  year         = {2015},
}