Bounding defaults in egress models
Gwynne, Steven M V ; Kuligowski, Erica ; Spearpoint, Michael and Ronchi, Enrico LU
(2015)
In Fire and Materials
39(4).
p.335-352
- Abstract
- Egress model developers are in a difficult position. It is in their interest to develop models that are simplified representations of reality and at the same time reduce inadvertent misuse. While default values enable immediate (i.e. out-of-the-box) use of models without in-depth familiarization with modelling assumptions, defaults often represent optimistic and/or even unrealistic evacuee behaviours. In this paper, the term ‘default’ relates to a preset, fixed setting or value (or distribution) for a parameter or algorithm. Most egress models provide default values for five core behavioural elements: pre-evacuation time, travel speeds, route usage, route availability and flow conditions. These behavioural elements typically need to be... (More)
- Egress model developers are in a difficult position. It is in their interest to develop models that are simplified representations of reality and at the same time reduce inadvertent misuse. While default values enable immediate (i.e. out-of-the-box) use of models without in-depth familiarization with modelling assumptions, defaults often represent optimistic and/or even unrealistic evacuee behaviours. In this paper, the term ‘default’ relates to a preset, fixed setting or value (or distribution) for a parameter or algorithm. Most egress models provide default values for five core behavioural elements: pre-evacuation time, travel speeds, route usage, route availability and flow conditions. These behavioural elements typically need to be represented in order for the model to function. The authors suggest that bounding default settings, rather than optimistic values, should be provided for each behavioural element. Here, a bounding default setting is a value derived from relevant empirical data that prolongs the overall evacuation time produced for a particular design. If a user wishes to decrease the conservative nature of a setting, he or she would be required to justify the modification of the bounding default value(s). This approach allows immediate model use but forces the user to modify the settings to obtain credible design scenarios. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4178336
- author
- Gwynne, Steven M V
; Kuligowski, Erica
; Spearpoint, Michael
and Ronchi, Enrico
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2015
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- emergency evacuation, egress modelling, human behaviour in fire, model defaults
- in
- Fire and Materials
- volume
- 39
- issue
- 4
- pages
- 335 - 352
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000353338600005
- scopus:84928208815
- ISSN
- 1099-1018
- DOI
- 10.1002/fam.2212
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- c1e01823-617d-4675-9d94-ddc46f6b141a (old id 4178336)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 11:13:35
- date last changed
- 2025-04-04 14:09:59
@article{c1e01823-617d-4675-9d94-ddc46f6b141a,
abstract = {{Egress model developers are in a difficult position. It is in their interest to develop models that are simplified representations of reality and at the same time reduce inadvertent misuse. While default values enable immediate (i.e. out-of-the-box) use of models without in-depth familiarization with modelling assumptions, defaults often represent optimistic and/or even unrealistic evacuee behaviours. In this paper, the term ‘default’ relates to a preset, fixed setting or value (or distribution) for a parameter or algorithm. Most egress models provide default values for five core behavioural elements: pre-evacuation time, travel speeds, route usage, route availability and flow conditions. These behavioural elements typically need to be represented in order for the model to function. The authors suggest that bounding default settings, rather than optimistic values, should be provided for each behavioural element. Here, a bounding default setting is a value derived from relevant empirical data that prolongs the overall evacuation time produced for a particular design. If a user wishes to decrease the conservative nature of a setting, he or she would be required to justify the modification of the bounding default value(s). This approach allows immediate model use but forces the user to modify the settings to obtain credible design scenarios.}},
author = {{Gwynne, Steven M V and Kuligowski, Erica and Spearpoint, Michael and Ronchi, Enrico}},
issn = {{1099-1018}},
keywords = {{emergency evacuation; egress modelling; human behaviour in fire; model defaults}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{4}},
pages = {{335--352}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{Fire and Materials}},
title = {{Bounding defaults in egress models}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fam.2212}},
doi = {{10.1002/fam.2212}},
volume = {{39}},
year = {{2015}},
}