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Adaptation of reproductive phenology to climate change with ecological feedback via dominance hierarchies.

Johansson, Jacob LU ; Smith, Henrik LU and Jonzén, Niclas LU (2014) In Journal of Animal Ecology 83(2). p.440-449
Abstract
Phenological shifts belong to the most commonly observed biological responses to recent climate change. It is, however, often unclear how these shifts are linked to demography and competitive interactions. We develop an eco-evolutionary model to study adaptation of timing of reproduction in organisms with social dominance hierarchies. We focus on residential birds with winter flocks, where success in competition for territories among offspring depends on ranking given by prior residence. We study the effects of environmental change on breeding population densities, ensuing selection pressures and long-term evolutionary equilibria. We consider changes in food peak date, in winter survival, in total reproductive output and in the width of... (More)
Phenological shifts belong to the most commonly observed biological responses to recent climate change. It is, however, often unclear how these shifts are linked to demography and competitive interactions. We develop an eco-evolutionary model to study adaptation of timing of reproduction in organisms with social dominance hierarchies. We focus on residential birds with winter flocks, where success in competition for territories among offspring depends on ranking given by prior residence. We study the effects of environmental change on breeding population densities, ensuing selection pressures and long-term evolutionary equilibria. We consider changes in food peak date, in winter survival, in total reproductive output and in the width of the food distribution. We show that the evolutionarily stable hatching date will advance with increasing winter survival and reproductive output since these parameters increase habitat saturation and post-fledging competition. Increasing the length of the breeding season also selects for earlier hatching date due to the reduced costs for producing offspring with high ranking. Our analysis shows that there is little correlation between short-term and long-term population responses across different scenarios of environmental change. However, short-term population growth consistently predicts selection for earlier reproduction. Hence, the model identifies changed breeding population density as a key factor to understanding phenological adaptation in systems with prior residence advantages. While selection for change in reproductive phenology is often explained by changed seasonal variation in environmental variables, such as food abundance, we show that environmental change without apparent effects on seasonality can critically affect phenological adaptation. Such factors can mask or even override influences of changed seasonality on phenology. The model thus offers a conceptually new set of explanations for understanding phenological and demographic trends in a changing climate. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
evolutionary game theory, life history, prior residence, territory competition, timing of reproduction
in
Journal of Animal Ecology
volume
83
issue
2
pages
440 - 449
publisher
Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd
external identifiers
  • pmid:24237260
  • wos:000331469200013
  • scopus:84894284136
ISSN
1365-2656
DOI
10.1111/1365-2656.12151
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
6b2a7b01-5412-4fba-9da9-330e427b4d87 (old id 4179307)
date added to LUP
2013-12-18 16:31:24
date last changed
2017-02-26 03:14:34
@article{6b2a7b01-5412-4fba-9da9-330e427b4d87,
  abstract     = {Phenological shifts belong to the most commonly observed biological responses to recent climate change. It is, however, often unclear how these shifts are linked to demography and competitive interactions. We develop an eco-evolutionary model to study adaptation of timing of reproduction in organisms with social dominance hierarchies. We focus on residential birds with winter flocks, where success in competition for territories among offspring depends on ranking given by prior residence. We study the effects of environmental change on breeding population densities, ensuing selection pressures and long-term evolutionary equilibria. We consider changes in food peak date, in winter survival, in total reproductive output and in the width of the food distribution. We show that the evolutionarily stable hatching date will advance with increasing winter survival and reproductive output since these parameters increase habitat saturation and post-fledging competition. Increasing the length of the breeding season also selects for earlier hatching date due to the reduced costs for producing offspring with high ranking. Our analysis shows that there is little correlation between short-term and long-term population responses across different scenarios of environmental change. However, short-term population growth consistently predicts selection for earlier reproduction. Hence, the model identifies changed breeding population density as a key factor to understanding phenological adaptation in systems with prior residence advantages. While selection for change in reproductive phenology is often explained by changed seasonal variation in environmental variables, such as food abundance, we show that environmental change without apparent effects on seasonality can critically affect phenological adaptation. Such factors can mask or even override influences of changed seasonality on phenology. The model thus offers a conceptually new set of explanations for understanding phenological and demographic trends in a changing climate.},
  author       = {Johansson, Jacob and Smith, Henrik and Jonzén, Niclas},
  issn         = {1365-2656},
  keyword      = {evolutionary game theory,life history,prior residence,territory competition,timing of reproduction},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {440--449},
  publisher    = {Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
  series       = {Journal of Animal Ecology},
  title        = {Adaptation of reproductive phenology to climate change with ecological feedback via dominance hierarchies.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12151},
  volume       = {83},
  year         = {2014},
}