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Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices

Jewell, Jessica; Cherp, Aleh LU and Riahi, Keywan (2014) In Energy Policy 65. p.743-760
Abstract
How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a frame- work to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 ‘low- carbon’ scenarios where the global mean... (More)
How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a frame- work to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 ‘low- carbon’ scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 21C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
energy security
in
Energy Policy
volume
65
pages
743 - 760
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000330813800073
  • scopus:84890312310
ISSN
1873-6777
DOI
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.051
project
Global Energy Assessment
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
abed3d9b-7f9f-4f46-a55c-32b067f27190 (old id 4195664)
date added to LUP
2013-12-16 14:27:03
date last changed
2017-10-22 04:10:44
@article{abed3d9b-7f9f-4f46-a55c-32b067f27190,
  abstract     = {How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a frame- work to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 ‘low- carbon’ scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 21C over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables.},
  author       = {Jewell, Jessica and Cherp, Aleh and Riahi, Keywan},
  issn         = {1873-6777},
  keyword      = {energy security},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {743--760},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Energy Policy},
  title        = {Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.10.051},
  volume       = {65},
  year         = {2014},
}