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Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary

Henry, R. C.; Engström, K. LU ; Olin, S. LU ; Alexander, P.; Arneth, A. LU and Rounsevell, M. D.A. (2018) In PLoS ONE 13(3).
Abstract

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate... (More)

Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
PLoS ONE
volume
13
issue
3
publisher
Public Library of Science
external identifiers
  • scopus:85044334949
ISSN
1932-6203
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0194695
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4212c5da-236f-4f10-9b79-37e77576e82e
date added to LUP
2018-04-05 14:55:20
date last changed
2019-02-20 11:12:58
@article{4212c5da-236f-4f10-9b79-37e77576e82e,
  abstract     = {<p>Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. Agricultural expansion and intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.</p>},
  articleno    = {e0194695},
  author       = {Henry, R. C. and Engström, K. and Olin, S. and Alexander, P. and Arneth, A. and Rounsevell, M. D.A.},
  issn         = {1932-6203},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {03},
  number       = {3},
  publisher    = {Public Library of Science},
  series       = {PLoS ONE},
  title        = {Food supply and bioenergy production within the global cropland planetary boundary},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194695},
  volume       = {13},
  year         = {2018},
}