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Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

Thuiller, W ; Lavorel, S ; Sykes, Martin LU and Araujo, MB (2006) In Diversity and Distributions 12(1). p.49-60
Abstract
Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the... (More)
Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning. (Less)
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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
species, niche-based models, climate change, functional diversity, richness
in
Diversity and Distributions
volume
12
issue
1
pages
49 - 60
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000234026600006
  • scopus:33645005227
ISSN
1366-9516
DOI
10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
21194b96-14f8-485e-b728-9e152d0491c7 (old id 421763)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 16:53:52
date last changed
2020-12-29 01:37:52
@article{21194b96-14f8-485e-b728-9e152d0491c7,
  abstract     = {Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.},
  author       = {Thuiller, W and Lavorel, S and Sykes, Martin and Araujo, MB},
  issn         = {1366-9516},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {49--60},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Diversity and Distributions},
  title        = {Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x},
  doi          = {10.1111/j.1366-9516.2006.00216.x},
  volume       = {12},
  year         = {2006},
}