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A probabilistic approach for the analysis of evacuation movement data

Ronchi, Enrico LU ; Kuligowski, Erica D.; Peacock, Richard D. and Reneke, Paul A. (2014) In Fire Safety Journal 63. p.69-78
Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic approach to analyse evacuation movement data. The approach relies on a detailed video analysis of people movement and pattern reconstruction. Conditional probabilities for travel path trajectories, walking speeds, and physical area occupied on stair landings are calculated for the evacuee population. The approach has been applied as a case study using data from an evacuation drill performed in a six-storey office building in the United States. The evacuation drill was filmed and occupant's behaviours on stairs were analysed using the new method. A comparison with the deterministic methods currently employed in engineering practice has been performed. The benefits of the probabilistic approach are... (More)
This paper presents a probabilistic approach to analyse evacuation movement data. The approach relies on a detailed video analysis of people movement and pattern reconstruction. Conditional probabilities for travel path trajectories, walking speeds, and physical area occupied on stair landings are calculated for the evacuee population. The approach has been applied as a case study using data from an evacuation drill performed in a six-storey office building in the United States. The evacuation drill was filmed and occupant's behaviours on stairs were analysed using the new method. A comparison with the deterministic methods currently employed in engineering practice has been performed. The benefits of the probabilistic approach are discussed, including (1) a more accurate representation of people movement and (2) the use of probabilistic data for modelling purposes, i.e., model validation and model development. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Pedestrian movement, Probabilistic approach, Stair evacuation, Effective width, Conditional probabilities, Evacuation modelling
in
Fire Safety Journal
volume
63
pages
69 - 78
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000331680900008
  • scopus:84890909212
ISSN
0379-7112
DOI
10.1016/j.firesaf.2013.11.012
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
ee19739c-9fbc-41e5-b434-c106dc4290fa (old id 4220062)
date added to LUP
2013-12-20 10:49:33
date last changed
2017-01-01 06:14:14
@article{ee19739c-9fbc-41e5-b434-c106dc4290fa,
  abstract     = {This paper presents a probabilistic approach to analyse evacuation movement data. The approach relies on a detailed video analysis of people movement and pattern reconstruction. Conditional probabilities for travel path trajectories, walking speeds, and physical area occupied on stair landings are calculated for the evacuee population. The approach has been applied as a case study using data from an evacuation drill performed in a six-storey office building in the United States. The evacuation drill was filmed and occupant's behaviours on stairs were analysed using the new method. A comparison with the deterministic methods currently employed in engineering practice has been performed. The benefits of the probabilistic approach are discussed, including (1) a more accurate representation of people movement and (2) the use of probabilistic data for modelling purposes, i.e., model validation and model development.},
  author       = {Ronchi, Enrico and Kuligowski, Erica D. and Peacock, Richard D. and Reneke, Paul A.},
  issn         = {0379-7112},
  keyword      = {Pedestrian movement,Probabilistic approach,Stair evacuation,Effective width,Conditional probabilities,Evacuation modelling},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {69--78},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Fire Safety Journal},
  title        = {A probabilistic approach for the analysis of evacuation movement data},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.firesaf.2013.11.012},
  volume       = {63},
  year         = {2014},
}