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How to Develop Renewable Power in China? A Cost-Effective Perspective

Cong, Ronggang LU and Shen, Shaochuan LU (2014) In Scientific World Journal 2014.
Abstract
To address the problems of climate change and energy security, Chinese government strived to develop renewable power as an

important alternative of conventional electricity. In this paper, the learning curve model is employed to describe the decreasing unit investment cost due to accumulated installed capacity; the technology diffusion model is used to analyze the potential of renewable power. Combined with the investment cost, the technology potential, and scenario analysis of China social development in the future, we develop the Renewable Power Optimization Model (RPOM) to analyze the optimal development paths of three sources of renewable power from 2009 to 2020 in a cost-effective way. Results show that (1) the optimal... (More)
To address the problems of climate change and energy security, Chinese government strived to develop renewable power as an

important alternative of conventional electricity. In this paper, the learning curve model is employed to describe the decreasing unit investment cost due to accumulated installed capacity; the technology diffusion model is used to analyze the potential of renewable power. Combined with the investment cost, the technology potential, and scenario analysis of China social development in the future, we develop the Renewable Power Optimization Model (RPOM) to analyze the optimal development paths of three sources of renewable power from 2009 to 2020 in a cost-effective way. Results show that (1) the optimal accumulated installed capacities of wind power, solar power, and biomass power will reach 169000, 20000, and 30000MWin 2020; (2) the developments of renewable power show the intermittent feature; (3) the unit investment costs of wind power, solar power, and biomass power will be 4500, 11500, and 5700 Yuan/KW in 2020; (4) the discounting effect dominates the learning curve effect for solar and biomass powers; (5) the rise of on-grid ratio of renewable power will first promote the development of wind power and then solar power

and biomass power. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Scientific World Journal
volume
2014
publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
external identifiers
  • pmid:24578672
  • wos:000330765100001
  • scopus:84893869449
ISSN
2356-6140
DOI
10.1155/2014/946932
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
f53bcd13-47b7-48b5-bd99-1fbcbb78bf52 (old id 4333040)
date added to LUP
2014-02-27 11:27:37
date last changed
2017-11-05 04:13:41
@article{f53bcd13-47b7-48b5-bd99-1fbcbb78bf52,
  abstract     = {To address the problems of climate change and energy security, Chinese government strived to develop renewable power as an<br/><br>
important alternative of conventional electricity. In this paper, the learning curve model is employed to describe the decreasing unit investment cost due to accumulated installed capacity; the technology diffusion model is used to analyze the potential of renewable power. Combined with the investment cost, the technology potential, and scenario analysis of China social development in the future, we develop the Renewable Power Optimization Model (RPOM) to analyze the optimal development paths of three sources of renewable power from 2009 to 2020 in a cost-effective way. Results show that (1) the optimal accumulated installed capacities of wind power, solar power, and biomass power will reach 169000, 20000, and 30000MWin 2020; (2) the developments of renewable power show the intermittent feature; (3) the unit investment costs of wind power, solar power, and biomass power will be 4500, 11500, and 5700 Yuan/KW in 2020; (4) the discounting effect dominates the learning curve effect for solar and biomass powers; (5) the rise of on-grid ratio of renewable power will first promote the development of wind power and then solar power<br/><br>
and biomass power.},
  articleno    = {946932},
  author       = {Cong, Ronggang and Shen, Shaochuan},
  issn         = {2356-6140},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {Hindawi Publishing Corporation},
  series       = {Scientific World Journal},
  title        = {How to Develop Renewable Power in China? A Cost-Effective Perspective},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/946932},
  volume       = {2014},
  year         = {2014},
}