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Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: Results from six IAMs

Jewell, Jessic; Cherp, Aleh LU ; Vinichenko, Vadim; Bauer, Nico; Kober, Tom; McCollum, David; van Vuuren, Detlev and van der Zwaan, Bob (2014) In Climate Change Economics
Abstract
This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (a business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate potential long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union, India and the US, as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of... (More)
This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (a business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate potential long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union, India and the US, as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy systems, particularly in the especially vulnerable transportation sector. China, India and the EU will derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the US may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the 2nd half of the century. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
in press
subject
keywords
energy security, climate change
in
Climate Change Economics
publisher
World Scientific
ISSN
2010-0086
project
Global Energy Assessment
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4bc7fd5c-24ee-4d9d-a0ab-d7ab3492ce19 (old id 4363549)
date added to LUP
2014-03-28 10:27:30
date last changed
2016-04-15 18:28:05
@article{4bc7fd5c-24ee-4d9d-a0ab-d7ab3492ce19,
  abstract     = {This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (a business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate potential long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union, India and the US, as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy systems, particularly in the especially vulnerable transportation sector. China, India and the EU will derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the US may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the 2nd half of the century.},
  author       = {Jewell, Jessic and Cherp, Aleh and Vinichenko, Vadim and Bauer, Nico and Kober, Tom and McCollum, David and van Vuuren, Detlev and van der Zwaan, Bob},
  issn         = {2010-0086},
  keyword      = {energy security,climate change},
  language     = {eng},
  publisher    = {World Scientific},
  series       = {Climate Change Economics},
  title        = {Energy security of China, India, the EU and the US under long-term scenarios: Results from six IAMs},
  year         = {2014},
}