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Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

Sverdrup, Harald LU ; Koca, Deniz LU and Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala (2014) In Resources, Conservation & Recycling 83. p.121-140
Abstract
The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of... (More)
The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC-3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840-2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7-3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35-1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027-2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Silver, Reserves, Mining, Recycling, Modelling, Sustainability
in
Resources, Conservation & Recycling
volume
83
pages
121 - 140
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000332444600012
  • scopus:84892544541
ISSN
0921-3449
DOI
10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.12.008
project
BECC
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
22533c64-238a-4236-9e53-13267547530a (old id 4418936)
date added to LUP
2014-04-29 12:57:02
date last changed
2017-08-06 03:57:26
@article{22533c64-238a-4236-9e53-13267547530a,
  abstract     = {The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC-3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840-2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7-3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35-1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027-2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Sverdrup, Harald and Koca, Deniz and Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala},
  issn         = {0921-3449},
  keyword      = {Silver,Reserves,Mining,Recycling,Modelling,Sustainability},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {121--140},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Resources, Conservation & Recycling},
  title        = {Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.12.008},
  volume       = {83},
  year         = {2014},
}