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Modelling the Holocene migrational dynamics of Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst

Lehsten, Dörte LU ; Dullinger, Stefan ; Huelber, Karl ; Schurgers, Guy LU ; Cheddadi, Rachid ; Laborde, Henri ; Lehsten, Veiko LU ; Francois, Louis ; Dury, Marie and Sykes, Martin LU (2014) In Global Ecology and Biogeography 23(6). p.658-668
Abstract
Aim Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance-driven succession and competition processes are reduced to simple assumptions or are even missing. The aim of this study was to test a combination of a migration model and a dynamic vegetation model to estimate the migration of tree species controlled by climate, environment and local species dynamics such as succession and competition. Location Europe. Methods To estimate the effect of vegetation dynamics on the migration of European beech and Norway spruce, we developed a post-process migration tool (LPJ-CATS). This tool integrates outputs of the migration... (More)
Aim Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance-driven succession and competition processes are reduced to simple assumptions or are even missing. The aim of this study was to test a combination of a migration model and a dynamic vegetation model to estimate the migration of tree species controlled by climate, environment and local species dynamics such as succession and competition. Location Europe. Methods To estimate the effect of vegetation dynamics on the migration of European beech and Norway spruce, we developed a post-process migration tool (LPJ-CATS). This tool integrates outputs of the migration model CATS and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The model LPJ-CATS relies on a linear dependency between the dispersal kernel and migration rate and is based on the assumption that competition reduces fecundity. Results Simulating potential migration rates with the CATS model, which does not account for competition and disturbance, resulted in mean Holocene migration rates of 435 +/- 55 and 330 +/- 95 m year(-1) for the two species Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, respectively. With LPJ-CATS, these mean migration rates were reduced to 250 +/- 75 and 170 +/- 60 m year(-1) for spruce and beech, respectively. Moreover, LPJ-CATS simulated migration pathways of these two species that generally comply well with those documented in the palaeo-records. Main conclusions Our 'hybrid' modelling approach allowed for the simulation of generally realistic Holocene migration rates and pathways of the two study species on a continental scale. It suggests that competition can considerably modify spread rates, but also the magnitude of its effect depends on how close climate conditions are to the niche requirements of a particular species. (Less)
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author
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Holocene migration, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, LPJ-CATS, competition, Climate change, DGVM, Holocene
in
Global Ecology and Biogeography
volume
23
issue
6
pages
658 - 668
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000334160200005
  • scopus:84898545400
ISSN
1466-8238
DOI
10.1111/geb.12145
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4811d117-27e9-40fd-a84e-d4a2ffc25696 (old id 4438804)
date added to LUP
2016-04-01 10:09:20
date last changed
2022-03-12 02:39:04
@article{4811d117-27e9-40fd-a84e-d4a2ffc25696,
  abstract     = {{Aim Vegetation dynamics and the competitive interactions involved are assumed to restrict the ability of species to migrate. But in most migration modelling approaches disturbance-driven succession and competition processes are reduced to simple assumptions or are even missing. The aim of this study was to test a combination of a migration model and a dynamic vegetation model to estimate the migration of tree species controlled by climate, environment and local species dynamics such as succession and competition. Location Europe. Methods To estimate the effect of vegetation dynamics on the migration of European beech and Norway spruce, we developed a post-process migration tool (LPJ-CATS). This tool integrates outputs of the migration model CATS and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The model LPJ-CATS relies on a linear dependency between the dispersal kernel and migration rate and is based on the assumption that competition reduces fecundity. Results Simulating potential migration rates with the CATS model, which does not account for competition and disturbance, resulted in mean Holocene migration rates of 435 +/- 55 and 330 +/- 95 m year(-1) for the two species Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, respectively. With LPJ-CATS, these mean migration rates were reduced to 250 +/- 75 and 170 +/- 60 m year(-1) for spruce and beech, respectively. Moreover, LPJ-CATS simulated migration pathways of these two species that generally comply well with those documented in the palaeo-records. Main conclusions Our 'hybrid' modelling approach allowed for the simulation of generally realistic Holocene migration rates and pathways of the two study species on a continental scale. It suggests that competition can considerably modify spread rates, but also the magnitude of its effect depends on how close climate conditions are to the niche requirements of a particular species.}},
  author       = {{Lehsten, Dörte and Dullinger, Stefan and Huelber, Karl and Schurgers, Guy and Cheddadi, Rachid and Laborde, Henri and Lehsten, Veiko and Francois, Louis and Dury, Marie and Sykes, Martin}},
  issn         = {{1466-8238}},
  keywords     = {{Holocene migration; Fagus sylvatica; Picea abies; LPJ-CATS; competition; Climate change; DGVM; Holocene}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{6}},
  pages        = {{658--668}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
  series       = {{Global Ecology and Biogeography}},
  title        = {{Modelling the Holocene migrational dynamics of Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.12145}},
  doi          = {{10.1111/geb.12145}},
  volume       = {{23}},
  year         = {{2014}},
}