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Motorcycles entering from access points and merging with traffic on primary roads in Malaysia: Behavioral and road environment influence on the occurrence of traffic conflicts.

Manan, Marizwan LU (2014) In Accident Analysis and Prevention 70. p.301-313
Abstract
This paper uses data from an observational study, conducted at access points in straight sections of primary roads in Malaysia in 2012, to investigate the effects of motorcyclists' behavior and road environment attributes on the occurrence of serious traffic conflicts involving motorcyclists entering primary roads via access points. In order to handle the unobserved heterogeneity in the small sample data size, this study applies mixed effects logistic regression with multilevel bootstrapping. Two statistically significant models (Model 2 and Model 3) are produced, with 2 levels of random effect parameters, i.e. motorcyclists' attributes and behavior at Level 1, and road environment attributes at Level 2. Among all the road environment... (More)
This paper uses data from an observational study, conducted at access points in straight sections of primary roads in Malaysia in 2012, to investigate the effects of motorcyclists' behavior and road environment attributes on the occurrence of serious traffic conflicts involving motorcyclists entering primary roads via access points. In order to handle the unobserved heterogeneity in the small sample data size, this study applies mixed effects logistic regression with multilevel bootstrapping. Two statistically significant models (Model 2 and Model 3) are produced, with 2 levels of random effect parameters, i.e. motorcyclists' attributes and behavior at Level 1, and road environment attributes at Level 2. Among all the road environment attributes tested, the traffic volume and the speed limit are found to be statistically significant, only contributing to 26-29% of the variations affecting the traffic conflict outcome. The implication is that 71-74% of the unmeasured or undescribed attributes and behavior of motorcyclists still have an importance in predicting the outcome: a serious traffic conflict. As for the fixed effect parameters, both models show that the risk of motorcyclists being involved in a serious traffic conflict is 2-4 times more likely if they accept a shorter gap to a single approaching vehicle (time lag <4s) and in between two vehicles (time gap <4s) when entering the primary road from the access point. A road environment factor, such as a narrow lane (seen in Model 2), and a behavioral factor, such as stopping at the stop line (seen in Model 3), also influence the occurrence of a serious traffic conflict compared to those entering into a wider lane road and without stopping at the stop line, respectively. A discussion of the possible reasons for this seemingly strange result, including a recommendation for further research, concludes the paper. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Accident Analysis and Prevention
volume
70
pages
301 - 313
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • pmid:24831271
  • wos:000337855300034
  • scopus:84900448283
ISSN
1879-2057
DOI
10.1016/j.aap.2014.04.009
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
dbb0b549-85ff-4a38-869a-846236f840f6 (old id 4455103)
date added to LUP
2014-06-05 13:49:18
date last changed
2017-09-24 03:18:46
@article{dbb0b549-85ff-4a38-869a-846236f840f6,
  abstract     = {This paper uses data from an observational study, conducted at access points in straight sections of primary roads in Malaysia in 2012, to investigate the effects of motorcyclists' behavior and road environment attributes on the occurrence of serious traffic conflicts involving motorcyclists entering primary roads via access points. In order to handle the unobserved heterogeneity in the small sample data size, this study applies mixed effects logistic regression with multilevel bootstrapping. Two statistically significant models (Model 2 and Model 3) are produced, with 2 levels of random effect parameters, i.e. motorcyclists' attributes and behavior at Level 1, and road environment attributes at Level 2. Among all the road environment attributes tested, the traffic volume and the speed limit are found to be statistically significant, only contributing to 26-29% of the variations affecting the traffic conflict outcome. The implication is that 71-74% of the unmeasured or undescribed attributes and behavior of motorcyclists still have an importance in predicting the outcome: a serious traffic conflict. As for the fixed effect parameters, both models show that the risk of motorcyclists being involved in a serious traffic conflict is 2-4 times more likely if they accept a shorter gap to a single approaching vehicle (time lag &lt;4s) and in between two vehicles (time gap &lt;4s) when entering the primary road from the access point. A road environment factor, such as a narrow lane (seen in Model 2), and a behavioral factor, such as stopping at the stop line (seen in Model 3), also influence the occurrence of a serious traffic conflict compared to those entering into a wider lane road and without stopping at the stop line, respectively. A discussion of the possible reasons for this seemingly strange result, including a recommendation for further research, concludes the paper.},
  author       = {Manan, Marizwan},
  issn         = {1879-2057},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {301--313},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Accident Analysis and Prevention},
  title        = {Motorcycles entering from access points and merging with traffic on primary roads in Malaysia: Behavioral and road environment influence on the occurrence of traffic conflicts.},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.04.009},
  volume       = {70},
  year         = {2014},
}