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Average uranium bedrock concentration in Swedish municipalities predicts male lung cancer incidence rate when adjusted for smoking prevalence : Indication of a cumulative radon induced detriment?

Rääf, Christopher L. LU orcid ; Tondel, Martin ; Isaksson, Mats LU and Wålinder, Robert (2023) In Science of the Total Environment 855.
Abstract

Bedrock U has been used as a proxy for local indoor radon exposure. A preliminary assessment of cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 809,939 adult males living in 9 different Swedish counties in 1986 has been used to correlate the cumulative lung cancer and total cancer (excluding lung) incidence rates between 1986 and 2020, respectively with the municipality average value of bedrock U concentration obtained from Swedish geological Survey (SGU). To control for regional difference in tobacco smoking, data on county average smoking prevalence, obtained from a survey conducted by the Public Health Agency of Sweden from 2001 to 2004, was used. Regression analysis shows that there is a significant positive correlation between smoking... (More)

Bedrock U has been used as a proxy for local indoor radon exposure. A preliminary assessment of cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 809,939 adult males living in 9 different Swedish counties in 1986 has been used to correlate the cumulative lung cancer and total cancer (excluding lung) incidence rates between 1986 and 2020, respectively with the municipality average value of bedrock U concentration obtained from Swedish geological Survey (SGU). To control for regional difference in tobacco smoking, data on county average smoking prevalence, obtained from a survey conducted by the Public Health Agency of Sweden from 2001 to 2004, was used. Regression analysis shows that there is a significant positive correlation between smoking prevalence adjusted lung cancer incidence rate in males and the municipality bedrock U concentration (R2 = 0.273 with a slope 5.0 ± 0.87·10−3 ppm−1). The correlation is even more significant (R2 = 0.759 with a slope = 4.8 ± 0.25·10−3 ppm−1) when assessed on population weighted cancer incidence data binned in nine intervals of municipality average bedrock U concentration (ranging from 0.97 to 4.9 ppm). When assessing the corresponding correlations for total cancer incidence rate (excluding cancer of the lung) with adjustment for smoking prevalence, there appears to be no or little correlation with bedrock U concentration (R2 = 0.031). We conclude that an expanded future study needs age-standardized cancer incidence data to obtain a more consistent exposure-response model. Such model could be used to predict future lung cancer cases based on geological survey maps of bedrock U as an alternative to laborious indoor radon measurements, and to discern what future lung cancer rates can be expected for a population nearing zero smoking prevalence, with and without radon prevention.

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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Bedrock uranium, Lung cancer incidence rate, Radon exposure, Smoking prevalence
in
Science of the Total Environment
volume
855
article number
158899
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • pmid:36165824
  • scopus:85138442507
ISSN
0048-9697
DOI
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158899
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
448464b0-5f60-42f8-a1b6-d901a66076e8
date added to LUP
2022-12-05 13:31:01
date last changed
2024-11-01 11:46:49
@article{448464b0-5f60-42f8-a1b6-d901a66076e8,
  abstract     = {{<p>Bedrock U has been used as a proxy for local indoor radon exposure. A preliminary assessment of cancer incidence rate in a cohort of 809,939 adult males living in 9 different Swedish counties in 1986 has been used to correlate the cumulative lung cancer and total cancer (excluding lung) incidence rates between 1986 and 2020, respectively with the municipality average value of bedrock U concentration obtained from Swedish geological Survey (SGU). To control for regional difference in tobacco smoking, data on county average smoking prevalence, obtained from a survey conducted by the Public Health Agency of Sweden from 2001 to 2004, was used. Regression analysis shows that there is a significant positive correlation between smoking prevalence adjusted lung cancer incidence rate in males and the municipality bedrock U concentration (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.273 with a slope 5.0 ± 0.87·10<sup>−3</sup> ppm<sup>−1</sup>). The correlation is even more significant (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.759 with a slope = 4.8 ± 0.25·10<sup>−3</sup> ppm<sup>−1</sup>) when assessed on population weighted cancer incidence data binned in nine intervals of municipality average bedrock U concentration (ranging from 0.97 to 4.9 ppm). When assessing the corresponding correlations for total cancer incidence rate (excluding cancer of the lung) with adjustment for smoking prevalence, there appears to be no or little correlation with bedrock U concentration (R<sup>2</sup> = 0.031). We conclude that an expanded future study needs age-standardized cancer incidence data to obtain a more consistent exposure-response model. Such model could be used to predict future lung cancer cases based on geological survey maps of bedrock U as an alternative to laborious indoor radon measurements, and to discern what future lung cancer rates can be expected for a population nearing zero smoking prevalence, with and without radon prevention.</p>}},
  author       = {{Rääf, Christopher L. and Tondel, Martin and Isaksson, Mats and Wålinder, Robert}},
  issn         = {{0048-9697}},
  keywords     = {{Bedrock uranium; Lung cancer incidence rate; Radon exposure; Smoking prevalence}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{01}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Science of the Total Environment}},
  title        = {{Average uranium bedrock concentration in Swedish municipalities predicts male lung cancer incidence rate when adjusted for smoking prevalence : Indication of a cumulative radon induced detriment?}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158899}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158899}},
  volume       = {{855}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}