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Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden

Olsson, Jonas and Foster, Kean LU (2014) In Hydrology Research 45(3). p.479-489
Abstract
Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences in terms of, for example, increased risk of flooding and sewer overflow. In this study, extreme precipitation for durations between 30 min and 1 day in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model (RCM) for Sweden are analysed. As compared with daily observations in the period 1961-2010, the simulated extremes are found to be overall realistic with respect to magnitude, spatial homogeneity and temporal variability. In the ensemble of future projections, from 1981 to 2010 the 10-year 30-min precipitation will increase by 6% until 2011-2040, 15% until 2041-2070 and 23% until 2071-2100. The increase decreases with... (More)
Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences in terms of, for example, increased risk of flooding and sewer overflow. In this study, extreme precipitation for durations between 30 min and 1 day in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model (RCM) for Sweden are analysed. As compared with daily observations in the period 1961-2010, the simulated extremes are found to be overall realistic with respect to magnitude, spatial homogeneity and temporal variability. In the ensemble of future projections, from 1981 to 2010 the 10-year 30-min precipitation will increase by 6% until 2011-2040, 15% until 2041-2070 and 23% until 2071-2100. The increase decreases with increasing duration and at the daily scale the percentage values are approximately halved. The values are largely consistent with earlier estimates. Assessment of the impacts on the results of the spatial resolution and the specific RCM used indicated possibilities of both smaller and larger future increases. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
local flooding, rainfall, regional climate model, urban hydrology
in
Hydrology Research
volume
45
issue
3
pages
479 - 489
publisher
IWA Publishing
external identifiers
  • wos:000338913600014
  • scopus:84906263364
ISSN
1998-9563
DOI
10.2166/nh.2013.206
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
40d16a82-00d3-458d-a824-7ffb4d6fd7a8 (old id 4598836)
date added to LUP
2014-09-05 11:30:29
date last changed
2017-01-01 05:39:08
@article{40d16a82-00d3-458d-a824-7ffb4d6fd7a8,
  abstract     = {Climate change is expected to generate higher short-term precipitation intensities, which may have negative consequences in terms of, for example, increased risk of flooding and sewer overflow. In this study, extreme precipitation for durations between 30 min and 1 day in simulations with the RCA3 regional climate model (RCM) for Sweden are analysed. As compared with daily observations in the period 1961-2010, the simulated extremes are found to be overall realistic with respect to magnitude, spatial homogeneity and temporal variability. In the ensemble of future projections, from 1981 to 2010 the 10-year 30-min precipitation will increase by 6% until 2011-2040, 15% until 2041-2070 and 23% until 2071-2100. The increase decreases with increasing duration and at the daily scale the percentage values are approximately halved. The values are largely consistent with earlier estimates. Assessment of the impacts on the results of the spatial resolution and the specific RCM used indicated possibilities of both smaller and larger future increases.},
  author       = {Olsson, Jonas and Foster, Kean},
  issn         = {1998-9563},
  keyword      = {local flooding,rainfall,regional climate model,urban hydrology},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {3},
  pages        = {479--489},
  publisher    = {IWA Publishing},
  series       = {Hydrology Research},
  title        = {Short-term precipitation extremes in regional climate simulations for Sweden},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2013.206},
  volume       = {45},
  year         = {2014},
}