Modelling of OGTT curve identifies 1 h plasma glucose level as a strong predictor of incident type 2 diabetes: results from two prospective cohorts
(2015) In Diabetologia 58(1). p.87-97- Abstract
- Aims/hypothesis The relevance of the OGTT in predicting type 2 diabetes is unclear. We assessed the performance of 14 OGTT glucose traits in type 2 diabetes prediction. Methods We studied 2,603 and 2,386 Europeans from the Botnia study and Malmo Prevention Project (MPP) cohorts with baseline OGTT data. Over a follow-up period of 4.94 years and 23.5 years, 155 (5.95%) and 467 (19.57%) participants, respectively, developed type 2 diabetes. The main outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Results One-hour plasma glucose (1h-PG) was a fair/good predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC for receiver operating characteristic [AUC(ROC)] 0.80 [0.77, 0.84] and 0.70 [0.68, 0.73]). 1h-PG alone outperformed the prediction... (More)
- Aims/hypothesis The relevance of the OGTT in predicting type 2 diabetes is unclear. We assessed the performance of 14 OGTT glucose traits in type 2 diabetes prediction. Methods We studied 2,603 and 2,386 Europeans from the Botnia study and Malmo Prevention Project (MPP) cohorts with baseline OGTT data. Over a follow-up period of 4.94 years and 23.5 years, 155 (5.95%) and 467 (19.57%) participants, respectively, developed type 2 diabetes. The main outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Results One-hour plasma glucose (1h-PG) was a fair/good predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC for receiver operating characteristic [AUC(ROC)] 0.80 [0.77, 0.84] and 0.70 [0.68, 0.73]). 1h-PG alone outperformed the prediction model of multiple clinical risk factors (age, sex, BMI, family history of type 2 diabetes) in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC(ROC) 0.75 [0.72, 0.79] and 0.67 [0.64, 0.70]). The same clinical risk factors added to 1h-PG modestly increased prediction for incident type 2 diabetes (Botnia, AUC(ROC) 0.83 [0.80, 0.86]; MPP, AUC(ROC) 0.74 [0.72, 0.77]). 1h-PG also outperformed HbA(1c) in predicting type 2 diabetes in the Botnia cohort. A 1h-PG value of 8.9 mmol/l and 8.4 mmol/l was the optimal cut-point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals in the Botnia study and MPP, respectively, and represented 30% and 37% of all participants in these cohorts. High-risk individuals had a substantially increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes (OR 8.0 [5.5, 11.6] and 3.8 [3.1, 4.7]) and captured 75% and 62% of all incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP. Conclusions/interpretation1h-PG is a valuable prediction tool for identifying adults at risk for future type 2 diabetes. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
https://lup.lub.lu.se/record/4950730
- author
- Alyass, Akram ; Almgren, Peter LU ; Åkerlund, Mikael LU ; Dushoff, Jonathan ; Isomaa, Bo ; Nilsson, Peter LU ; Tuomi, Tiinamaija ; Lyssenko, Valeriya LU ; Groop, Leif LU and Meyre, David
- organization
- publishing date
- 2015
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Incident type 2 diabetes, Mathematical modelling, One-hour post-OGTT, plasma glucose, Oral glucose tolerance test, Prevention
- in
- Diabetologia
- volume
- 58
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 87 - 97
- publisher
- Springer
- external identifiers
-
- wos:000346022300014
- scopus:84916640700
- pmid:25292440
- ISSN
- 1432-0428
- DOI
- 10.1007/s00125-014-3390-x
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 4d11c320-9b10-47f2-9ce3-f737081fb853 (old id 4950730)
- date added to LUP
- 2016-04-01 09:52:59
- date last changed
- 2024-04-06 19:44:31
@article{4d11c320-9b10-47f2-9ce3-f737081fb853, abstract = {{Aims/hypothesis The relevance of the OGTT in predicting type 2 diabetes is unclear. We assessed the performance of 14 OGTT glucose traits in type 2 diabetes prediction. Methods We studied 2,603 and 2,386 Europeans from the Botnia study and Malmo Prevention Project (MPP) cohorts with baseline OGTT data. Over a follow-up period of 4.94 years and 23.5 years, 155 (5.95%) and 467 (19.57%) participants, respectively, developed type 2 diabetes. The main outcome was incident type 2 diabetes. Results One-hour plasma glucose (1h-PG) was a fair/good predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC for receiver operating characteristic [AUC(ROC)] 0.80 [0.77, 0.84] and 0.70 [0.68, 0.73]). 1h-PG alone outperformed the prediction model of multiple clinical risk factors (age, sex, BMI, family history of type 2 diabetes) in the Botnia study and MPP (AUC(ROC) 0.75 [0.72, 0.79] and 0.67 [0.64, 0.70]). The same clinical risk factors added to 1h-PG modestly increased prediction for incident type 2 diabetes (Botnia, AUC(ROC) 0.83 [0.80, 0.86]; MPP, AUC(ROC) 0.74 [0.72, 0.77]). 1h-PG also outperformed HbA(1c) in predicting type 2 diabetes in the Botnia cohort. A 1h-PG value of 8.9 mmol/l and 8.4 mmol/l was the optimal cut-point for initial screening and selection of high-risk individuals in the Botnia study and MPP, respectively, and represented 30% and 37% of all participants in these cohorts. High-risk individuals had a substantially increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes (OR 8.0 [5.5, 11.6] and 3.8 [3.1, 4.7]) and captured 75% and 62% of all incident type 2 diabetes in the Botnia study and MPP. Conclusions/interpretation1h-PG is a valuable prediction tool for identifying adults at risk for future type 2 diabetes.}}, author = {{Alyass, Akram and Almgren, Peter and Åkerlund, Mikael and Dushoff, Jonathan and Isomaa, Bo and Nilsson, Peter and Tuomi, Tiinamaija and Lyssenko, Valeriya and Groop, Leif and Meyre, David}}, issn = {{1432-0428}}, keywords = {{Incident type 2 diabetes; Mathematical modelling; One-hour post-OGTT; plasma glucose; Oral glucose tolerance test; Prevention}}, language = {{eng}}, number = {{1}}, pages = {{87--97}}, publisher = {{Springer}}, series = {{Diabetologia}}, title = {{Modelling of OGTT curve identifies 1 h plasma glucose level as a strong predictor of incident type 2 diabetes: results from two prospective cohorts}}, url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00125-014-3390-x}}, doi = {{10.1007/s00125-014-3390-x}}, volume = {{58}}, year = {{2015}}, }