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Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components Using Integrated Groundwater–Surface Water Models (Case Study: Shazand Plain, Iran)

Soltani, Farzaneh ; Javadi, Saman ; Roozbahani, Abbas ; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza ; Golmohammadi, Golmar ; Berndtsson, Ronny LU orcid ; Ghordoyee Milan, Sami and Maghsoudi, Rahimeh (2023) In Water (Switzerland) 15(4).
Abstract

Assessing the status of water resources is essential for long-term planning related to water and many other needs of a country. According to climate reports, climate change is on the rise in all parts of the world; however, this phenomenon will have more consequences in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, and their exchanges in Shazand plain in Iran, which has experienced a significant decline in streamflow and groundwater level in recent years. To address this issue, we propose the use of the integrated hydrological model MODFLOW-OWHM to simulate groundwater level, surface water routing, and their interactions; a climate model, NorESM, under... (More)

Assessing the status of water resources is essential for long-term planning related to water and many other needs of a country. According to climate reports, climate change is on the rise in all parts of the world; however, this phenomenon will have more consequences in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, and their exchanges in Shazand plain in Iran, which has experienced a significant decline in streamflow and groundwater level in recent years. To address this issue, we propose the use of the integrated hydrological model MODFLOW-OWHM to simulate groundwater level, surface water routing, and their interactions; a climate model, NorESM, under scenario SSP2, for climate data prediction; and, finally, the HEC-HMS model to predict future river discharge. The results predict that, under future climate conditions, the river discharges at the hydrometric stations of the region may decrease by 58%, 63%, 75%, and 81%. The average groundwater level in 2060 may decrease significantly by 15.1 m compared to 2010. The results of this study reveal the likely destructive effects of climate change on water resources in this region and highlight the need for sustainable management methods to mitigate these future effects.

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author
; ; ; ; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
climate change, groundwater–surface water interactions, integrated hydrological model, MODFLOW-OWHM, water resources
in
Water (Switzerland)
volume
15
issue
4
article number
813
publisher
MDPI AG
external identifiers
  • scopus:85149205852
ISSN
2073-4441
DOI
10.3390/w15040813
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4ca497c8-3742-4701-b833-14c405a28448
date added to LUP
2023-03-20 10:53:52
date last changed
2023-10-09 14:15:28
@article{4ca497c8-3742-4701-b833-14c405a28448,
  abstract     = {{<p>Assessing the status of water resources is essential for long-term planning related to water and many other needs of a country. According to climate reports, climate change is on the rise in all parts of the world; however, this phenomenon will have more consequences in arid and semi-arid regions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, and their exchanges in Shazand plain in Iran, which has experienced a significant decline in streamflow and groundwater level in recent years. To address this issue, we propose the use of the integrated hydrological model MODFLOW-OWHM to simulate groundwater level, surface water routing, and their interactions; a climate model, NorESM, under scenario SSP2, for climate data prediction; and, finally, the HEC-HMS model to predict future river discharge. The results predict that, under future climate conditions, the river discharges at the hydrometric stations of the region may decrease by 58%, 63%, 75%, and 81%. The average groundwater level in 2060 may decrease significantly by 15.1 m compared to 2010. The results of this study reveal the likely destructive effects of climate change on water resources in this region and highlight the need for sustainable management methods to mitigate these future effects.</p>}},
  author       = {{Soltani, Farzaneh and Javadi, Saman and Roozbahani, Abbas and Massah Bavani, Ali Reza and Golmohammadi, Golmar and Berndtsson, Ronny and Ghordoyee Milan, Sami and Maghsoudi, Rahimeh}},
  issn         = {{2073-4441}},
  keywords     = {{climate change; groundwater–surface water interactions; integrated hydrological model; MODFLOW-OWHM; water resources}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{4}},
  publisher    = {{MDPI AG}},
  series       = {{Water (Switzerland)}},
  title        = {{Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components Using Integrated Groundwater–Surface Water Models (Case Study: Shazand Plain, Iran)}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15040813}},
  doi          = {{10.3390/w15040813}},
  volume       = {{15}},
  year         = {{2023}},
}