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STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME SEA WATER LEVELS AT THE FALSTERBO PENINSULA, SOUTH SWEDEN

Fredriksson, Caroline LU ; Tajvidi, Nader LU ; Hanson, Hans LU and Larson, Magnus LU (2016) In Vatten: tidskrift för vattenvård /Journal of Water Management and research 2016(2). p.129-144
Abstract (Swedish)
Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme
storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South
Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above
normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas
have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the
flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the
Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level... (More)
Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme
storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South
Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above
normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas
have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the
flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the
Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from Skanör, Klagshamn,
and Ystad are analysed with General Extreme Value and General Pareto Distribution models to estimate sea
levels with return periods of 100–500 years. The estimated return period of the 1872 event, based on these
models, resulted in an unrealistically low probability. To better understand the statistical behaviour of extreme
storm surges of this magnitude on the Swedish south coast, development of more advanced statistical models
will be required. (Less)
Abstract
Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from... (More)
Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from Skanör, Klagshamn, and Ystad are analysed with General Extreme Value and General Pareto Distribution models to estimate sea levels with return periods of 100–500 years. The estimated return period of the 1872 event, based on these models, resulted in an unrealistically low probability. To better understand the statistical behaviour of extreme storm surges of this magnitude on the Swedish south coast, development of more advanced statistical models will be required. (Less)
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keywords
Extreme sea levels, Coastal flooding, The Falsterbo Peninsula, South Baltic Sea, General Extreme Value distribution, General Pareto Distribution, Backafloden, 1872 storm surge, Extreme sea levels, Coastal flooding, The Falsterbo Peninsula, South Baltic Sea, General Extreme Value distribution, General Pareto Distribution, Backafloden, 1872 storm surge
in
Vatten: tidskrift för vattenvård /Journal of Water Management and research
volume
2016
issue
2
pages
16 pages
publisher
Föreningen Vatten
ISSN
0042-2886
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
4e940703-8316-48cc-8b91-066cae9263f4
alternative location
http://www.tidskriftenvatten.se/article.asp?articleID=4790
date added to LUP
2016-09-07 21:27:20
date last changed
2017-03-15 11:41:02
@article{4e940703-8316-48cc-8b91-066cae9263f4,
  abstract     = {Falsterbo Peninsula on the south coast of Sweden is low-lying and exposed to flooding. In 1872 the extreme storm surge Backafloden caused large devastation on the Swedish, Danish, and German coasts in the South Baltic Sea. For the Falsterbo Peninsula, the peak storm surge level is estimated to have been 240 cm above normal. If a similar event happened today, the consequences would be far worse, as extensive flood prone areas have been developed since 1872. Due to climate change, the mean sea level is expected to rise and increase the flood risk unless preventive measures are taken. This paper discusses the occurrence of extreme sea levels at the Falsterbo Peninsula and design levels for coastal protection. Sea level observations from Skanör, Klagshamn, and Ystad are analysed with General Extreme Value and General Pareto Distribution models to estimate sea levels with return periods of 100–500 years. The estimated return period of the 1872 event, based on these models, resulted in an unrealistically low probability. To better understand the statistical behaviour of extreme storm surges of this magnitude on the Swedish south coast, development of more advanced statistical models will be required. },
  author       = {Fredriksson, Caroline and Tajvidi, Nader and Hanson, Hans and Larson, Magnus},
  issn         = {0042-2886},
  keyword      = {Extreme sea levels, Coastal flooding, The Falsterbo Peninsula, South Baltic Sea, General Extreme Value distribution, General Pareto Distribution, Backafloden, 1872 storm surge,Extreme sea levels,Coastal flooding,The Falsterbo Peninsula,South Baltic Sea,General Extreme Value distribution,General Pareto Distribution,Backafloden,1872 storm surge},
  language     = {eng},
  month        = {09},
  number       = {2},
  pages        = {129--144},
  publisher    = {Föreningen Vatten},
  series       = {Vatten: tidskrift för vattenvård /Journal of Water Management and research},
  title        = {STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME SEA WATER LEVELS AT THE FALSTERBO PENINSULA, SOUTH SWEDEN},
  volume       = {2016},
  year         = {2016},
}