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Future Demand and Supply of Food in China - A modeling attempt

Kalen, Christer; Haraldsson, Hördur and Koca, Deniz LU (2002) The 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society In Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society p.85-85
Abstract
This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural... (More)
This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out China may face an extensive need for import of grain products. (Less)
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type
Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding
publication status
published
subject
in
Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
pages
85 - 85
publisher
The System Dynamics Society
conference name
The 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
0261b763-7c44-46c4-9829-a97752e449c6 (old id 5043429)
alternative location
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2002/proceed/PROCEED.pdf
date added to LUP
2015-02-05 14:34:18
date last changed
2016-04-16 09:51:31
@inproceedings{0261b763-7c44-46c4-9829-a97752e449c6,
  abstract     = {This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the near future. Projections of population trends show that the population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling- off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is converted into urban area with high water consumption and pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production - agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out China may face an extensive need for import of grain products.},
  author       = {Kalen, Christer and Haraldsson, Hördur and Koca, Deniz},
  booktitle    = {Proceeding of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {85--85},
  publisher    = {The System Dynamics Society},
  title        = {Future Demand and Supply of Food in China - A modeling attempt},
  year         = {2002},
}