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Budburst model performance: The effect of the spatial resolution of temperature data sets

Olsson, Cecilia LU and Jönsson, Anna Maria LU (2015) In Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 200. p.302-312
Abstract
Phenological models have mainly been developed to capture the seasonal development of individual trees and local populations, using data from meteorological stations. Ecosystem models that incorporate phenology are however commonly driven by gridded climate data. Using two phenological models to simulate budburst of birch in Germany, we assessed how combining phenological point observations with gridded climate data in model calibration and evaluation influence model accuracy. The models were driven by observed temperature from a nearby meteorological station, gridded temperature, and observed and gridded temperature adjusted to the location of the tree. Our results indicate that the spatial resolution of temperature can influence the... (More)
Phenological models have mainly been developed to capture the seasonal development of individual trees and local populations, using data from meteorological stations. Ecosystem models that incorporate phenology are however commonly driven by gridded climate data. Using two phenological models to simulate budburst of birch in Germany, we assessed how combining phenological point observations with gridded climate data in model calibration and evaluation influence model accuracy. The models were driven by observed temperature from a nearby meteorological station, gridded temperature, and observed and gridded temperature adjusted to the location of the tree. Our results indicate that the spatial resolution of temperature can influence the models performance at individual sites, but with no temperature data set generating significantly more accurate simulations than the other temperatures. Irrespective of temperature data, the model simulations represented the average of several trees better than any individual tree. When evaluating the models performance using point observations, the error became smaller when driving the model with adjusted temperature data, and then calculating grid-cell averages based on several observations. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Temperature, Spatial resolution, Budburst, Growing degree-days, Betula, pendula
in
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
volume
200
pages
302 - 312
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000347582300029
  • scopus:84910091926
ISSN
1873-2240
DOI
10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.10.003
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
54f0f2e2-31d2-4cf5-ae45-359eb75dedd1 (old id 5076025)
date added to LUP
2015-02-25 17:07:04
date last changed
2017-01-01 05:53:54
@article{54f0f2e2-31d2-4cf5-ae45-359eb75dedd1,
  abstract     = {Phenological models have mainly been developed to capture the seasonal development of individual trees and local populations, using data from meteorological stations. Ecosystem models that incorporate phenology are however commonly driven by gridded climate data. Using two phenological models to simulate budburst of birch in Germany, we assessed how combining phenological point observations with gridded climate data in model calibration and evaluation influence model accuracy. The models were driven by observed temperature from a nearby meteorological station, gridded temperature, and observed and gridded temperature adjusted to the location of the tree. Our results indicate that the spatial resolution of temperature can influence the models performance at individual sites, but with no temperature data set generating significantly more accurate simulations than the other temperatures. Irrespective of temperature data, the model simulations represented the average of several trees better than any individual tree. When evaluating the models performance using point observations, the error became smaller when driving the model with adjusted temperature data, and then calculating grid-cell averages based on several observations. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Olsson, Cecilia and Jönsson, Anna Maria},
  issn         = {1873-2240},
  keyword      = {Temperature,Spatial resolution,Budburst,Growing degree-days,Betula,pendula},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {302--312},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
  title        = {Budburst model performance: The effect of the spatial resolution of temperature data sets},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.10.003},
  volume       = {200},
  year         = {2015},
}