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Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra

Marlier, Miriam E.; Defries, Ruth; Pennington, Derric; Nelson, Erik LU ; Ordway, Elsa M.; Lewis, Jeremy; Koplitz, Shannon N. and Mickley, Loretta J. (2015) In Global Change Biology 21(1). p.345-362
Abstract
Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find similar to 80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are... (More)
Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find similar to 80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km(2) land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
air quality, climate variability, deforestation, fire emissions, land, use
in
Global Change Biology
volume
21
issue
1
pages
345 - 362
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000346698100031
  • scopus:84917686062
ISSN
1354-1013
DOI
10.1111/gcb.12691
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
667e7fad-df7c-4f46-b69e-256be1e675b2 (old id 5085175)
date added to LUP
2015-02-26 11:57:21
date last changed
2017-11-05 03:11:36
@article{667e7fad-df7c-4f46-b69e-256be1e675b2,
  abstract     = {Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change over the last few decades as forests and peatswamps have been cleared for more intensively managed land uses, including oil palm and timber plantations. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and managing land for more intensive uses, and the related emissions affect public health by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations and adding to global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we examine emissions from fires associated with land use clearing and land management on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and the sensitivity of this fire activity to interannual meteorological variability. We find similar to 80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions are associated with degradation or land use maintenance instead of immediate land use conversion, especially in dry years. We estimate Sumatra fire emissions from land use change and maintenance for the next two decades with five scenarios of land use change, the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, detailed 1-km(2) land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations. Despite comprising only 16% of the original study area, we predict that 37-48% of future Sumatra emissions from land use change will occur in fuel-rich peatswamps unless this land cover type is protected effectively. This result means that the impact of fires on future air quality and climate in Equatorial Asia will be decided in part by the conservation status given to the remaining peatswamps on Sumatra. Results from this article will be implemented in an atmospheric transport model to quantify the public health impacts from the transport of fire emissions associated with future land use scenarios in Sumatra.},
  author       = {Marlier, Miriam E. and Defries, Ruth and Pennington, Derric and Nelson, Erik and Ordway, Elsa M. and Lewis, Jeremy and Koplitz, Shannon N. and Mickley, Loretta J.},
  issn         = {1354-1013},
  keyword      = {air quality,climate variability,deforestation,fire emissions,land,use},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {345--362},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Global Change Biology},
  title        = {Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12691},
  volume       = {21},
  year         = {2015},
}