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The eco-evolutionary consequences of interspecific phenological asynchrony - a theoretical perspective

Johansson, Jacob LU ; Kristensen, Nadiah LU ; Nilsson, Jan-Åke LU and Jonzén, Niclas LU (2015) In Oikos 124(1). p.102-112
Abstract
The timing of biological events (phenology) is an important aspect of both a species' life cycle and how it interacts with other species and its environment. Patterns of phenological change have been given much scientific attention, particularly recently in relation to climate change. For pairs of interacting species, if their rates of phenological change differ, then this may lead to asynchrony between them and disruption of their ecological interactions. However it is often difficult to interpret differential rates of phenological change and to predict their ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review theoretical results regarding this topic, with special emphasis on those arising from life history theory, evolutionary game... (More)
The timing of biological events (phenology) is an important aspect of both a species' life cycle and how it interacts with other species and its environment. Patterns of phenological change have been given much scientific attention, particularly recently in relation to climate change. For pairs of interacting species, if their rates of phenological change differ, then this may lead to asynchrony between them and disruption of their ecological interactions. However it is often difficult to interpret differential rates of phenological change and to predict their ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review theoretical results regarding this topic, with special emphasis on those arising from life history theory, evolutionary game theory and population dynamic models. Much ecological research on phenological change builds upon the concept of match/mismatch, so we start by putting forward a simple but general model that captures essential elements of this concept. We then systematically compare the predictions of this baseline model with expectations from theory in which additional ecological mechanisms and features of species life cycles are taken into account. We discuss the ways in which the fitness consequences of interspecific phenological asynchrony may be weak, strong, or idiosyncratic. We discuss theory showing that synchrony is not necessarily an expected evolutionary outcome, and how population densities are not necessarily maximized by adaptation, and the implications of these findings. By bringing together theoretical developments regarding the eco-evolutionary consequences of phenological asynchrony, we provide an overview of available alternative hypotheses for interpreting empirical patterns as well as the starting point for the next generation of theory in this field. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Oikos
volume
124
issue
1
pages
102 - 112
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • wos:000347052300012
  • scopus:84921536251
ISSN
1600-0706
DOI
10.1111/oik.01909
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
384f0134-63cc-4f13-941d-da90edde6a10 (old id 5085256)
date added to LUP
2015-02-26 12:53:09
date last changed
2017-11-19 03:17:44
@article{384f0134-63cc-4f13-941d-da90edde6a10,
  abstract     = {The timing of biological events (phenology) is an important aspect of both a species' life cycle and how it interacts with other species and its environment. Patterns of phenological change have been given much scientific attention, particularly recently in relation to climate change. For pairs of interacting species, if their rates of phenological change differ, then this may lead to asynchrony between them and disruption of their ecological interactions. However it is often difficult to interpret differential rates of phenological change and to predict their ecological and evolutionary consequences. We review theoretical results regarding this topic, with special emphasis on those arising from life history theory, evolutionary game theory and population dynamic models. Much ecological research on phenological change builds upon the concept of match/mismatch, so we start by putting forward a simple but general model that captures essential elements of this concept. We then systematically compare the predictions of this baseline model with expectations from theory in which additional ecological mechanisms and features of species life cycles are taken into account. We discuss the ways in which the fitness consequences of interspecific phenological asynchrony may be weak, strong, or idiosyncratic. We discuss theory showing that synchrony is not necessarily an expected evolutionary outcome, and how population densities are not necessarily maximized by adaptation, and the implications of these findings. By bringing together theoretical developments regarding the eco-evolutionary consequences of phenological asynchrony, we provide an overview of available alternative hypotheses for interpreting empirical patterns as well as the starting point for the next generation of theory in this field.},
  author       = {Johansson, Jacob and Kristensen, Nadiah and Nilsson, Jan-Åke and Jonzén, Niclas},
  issn         = {1600-0706},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1},
  pages        = {102--112},
  publisher    = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  series       = {Oikos},
  title        = {The eco-evolutionary consequences of interspecific phenological asynchrony - a theoretical perspective},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/oik.01909},
  volume       = {124},
  year         = {2015},
}