Modeling water demand for crop irrigation in Sweden under climate change
Rudebeck, Hugo LU
; Arheimer, Berit
; Elenius, Maria
and Persson, Magnus
LU
(2026)
In Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
64.
- Abstract
Study regionThe study encompasses Sweden (450 000 km2) located on the Scandinavian Peninsula in northern Europe.Study focusWe quantified the future crop-water demand and water-irrigation needs of 30,000 km² arable land across Sweden to prepare for climate adaptation. We applied a spatially distributed catchment-scale (40,000 sub-basins) hydrological model with an irrigation routine according to FAO guidelines. The model was forced with an extensive ensemble of bias adjusted regional climate-model data to explore climate impact.New hydrological insights for the regionCompared to the rest of the world, Scandinavia is a region with sparse irrigation and lack of data on crop-water demand, despite the rising concerns among practitioners. For... (More)
Study regionThe study encompasses Sweden (450 000 km2) located on the Scandinavian Peninsula in northern Europe.Study focusWe quantified the future crop-water demand and water-irrigation needs of 30,000 km² arable land across Sweden to prepare for climate adaptation. We applied a spatially distributed catchment-scale (40,000 sub-basins) hydrological model with an irrigation routine according to FAO guidelines. The model was forced with an extensive ensemble of bias adjusted regional climate-model data to explore climate impact.New hydrological insights for the regionCompared to the rest of the world, Scandinavia is a region with sparse irrigation and lack of data on crop-water demand, despite the rising concerns among practitioners. For the first time, we quantified the needed increase in irrigation water to preserve current crop cultivation under climate change. End-of-century projections indicate average annual irrigation-water demand of 905 and 1239 million m³ under the mid- and high-emission scenarios, corresponding to 38% and 52% of Sweden’s current freshwater use which is a significant increase from 3% today. The driest years were not found significantly drier but rather more frequent, and at worst, an average year might become as dry as the driest year in 1981–2010. Hence, because of global warming, Sweden may shift from rainfed to more irrigated crop production. This would increase agricultural production but also reduce water availability for competing sectors and ecological flows.
(Less)
- author
- Rudebeck, Hugo
LU
; Arheimer, Berit
; Elenius, Maria
and Persson, Magnus
LU
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-04
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Agricultural resilience, Agricultural water management, Climate change adaptation, Food security, Irrigation water demand, Large-scale hydrological modeling, Northern Europe
- in
- Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
- volume
- 64
- article number
- 103288
- publisher
- Elsevier
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105034550428
- ISSN
- 2214-5818
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103288
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- id
- 5166cb93-72cc-4602-854d-58645068475f
- date added to LUP
- 2026-06-08 12:07:24
- date last changed
- 2026-06-08 12:08:04
@article{5166cb93-72cc-4602-854d-58645068475f,
abstract = {{<p>Study regionThe study encompasses Sweden (450 000 km2) located on the Scandinavian Peninsula in northern Europe.Study focusWe quantified the future crop-water demand and water-irrigation needs of 30,000 km² arable land across Sweden to prepare for climate adaptation. We applied a spatially distributed catchment-scale (40,000 sub-basins) hydrological model with an irrigation routine according to FAO guidelines. The model was forced with an extensive ensemble of bias adjusted regional climate-model data to explore climate impact.New hydrological insights for the regionCompared to the rest of the world, Scandinavia is a region with sparse irrigation and lack of data on crop-water demand, despite the rising concerns among practitioners. For the first time, we quantified the needed increase in irrigation water to preserve current crop cultivation under climate change. End-of-century projections indicate average annual irrigation-water demand of 905 and 1239 million m³ under the mid- and high-emission scenarios, corresponding to 38% and 52% of Sweden’s current freshwater use which is a significant increase from 3% today. The driest years were not found significantly drier but rather more frequent, and at worst, an average year might become as dry as the driest year in 1981–2010. Hence, because of global warming, Sweden may shift from rainfed to more irrigated crop production. This would increase agricultural production but also reduce water availability for competing sectors and ecological flows.</p>}},
author = {{Rudebeck, Hugo and Arheimer, Berit and Elenius, Maria and Persson, Magnus}},
issn = {{2214-5818}},
keywords = {{Agricultural resilience; Agricultural water management; Climate change adaptation; Food security; Irrigation water demand; Large-scale hydrological modeling; Northern Europe}},
language = {{eng}},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
series = {{Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies}},
title = {{Modeling water demand for crop irrigation in Sweden under climate change}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103288}},
doi = {{10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103288}},
volume = {{64}},
year = {{2026}},
}