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Potential impact of climate change on European agriculture: a case study of potato and Colorado potato beetle

Pulatov, Bakhtiyor LU (2015)
Abstract (Swedish)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

Ett varmare klimat ökar generellt risken för angrepp av skadeinsekter på jordbruksgrödor, och många skadeinsekter förväntas sprida sig norrut. Den här avhandlingen fokuserar på hur ett varmare klimat kan påverka koloradoskalbaggen, en allvarlig skadegörare i potatisodlingar.

Koloradoskalbaggen kom från Mexiko till Europa i början av 1900-talet, och har sedan dess spridit sig till större delen av Europa. Dess utbredning gränsar för närvarande till Skandinavien. Fenologiska modeller drivna av klimatdata har använts för att simulera den temperaturberoende utvecklingen av potatis, från plantering till skörd, samt att beräkna hur många generationer av koloradoskalbaggen som kan utvecklas... (More)
Popular Abstract in Swedish

Ett varmare klimat ökar generellt risken för angrepp av skadeinsekter på jordbruksgrödor, och många skadeinsekter förväntas sprida sig norrut. Den här avhandlingen fokuserar på hur ett varmare klimat kan påverka koloradoskalbaggen, en allvarlig skadegörare i potatisodlingar.

Koloradoskalbaggen kom från Mexiko till Europa i början av 1900-talet, och har sedan dess spridit sig till större delen av Europa. Dess utbredning gränsar för närvarande till Skandinavien. Fenologiska modeller drivna av klimatdata har använts för att simulera den temperaturberoende utvecklingen av potatis, från plantering till skörd, samt att beräkna hur många generationer av koloradoskalbaggen som kan utvecklas under ett år. Resultaten visar att ett varmare klimat ökar risken för etablering av koloradoskalbaggen i Skandinavien, eftersom färre år kommer att vara så kalla att förökningen misslyckas. Modellresultaten visar också att temperaturen kan påverka interaktion mellan potatis och koloradoskalbagge, till exempel kan ett varmare klimat leda till att potatisen oftare skördas innan den nya generationen hunnit bli fullt utvecklad. Modellering är ett användbart verktyg för att hantera klimatrelaterade risker och osäkerheter, och utvärdera anpassningsstrategier. (Less)
Abstract
European agriculture is facing the challenge of managing the impact of climate change on food security. Agriculture in a northern temperate climate is likely to benefit from higher temperature and longer growing season while, in the south, crop productivity is likely to decline. Such changes in climate could also affect the population dynamics of insect pests. The Colorado potato beetle (CPB) is one the most destructive and widespread pests affecting potato plants, and can substantially reduce the potato harvest if left uncontrolled. Potato (Solanum tuberosum) is one of the main food crops in Europe. It is therefore important to investigate the potential for climate change adaptation in Europe by assessing the effects of a temperature... (More)
European agriculture is facing the challenge of managing the impact of climate change on food security. Agriculture in a northern temperate climate is likely to benefit from higher temperature and longer growing season while, in the south, crop productivity is likely to decline. Such changes in climate could also affect the population dynamics of insect pests. The Colorado potato beetle (CPB) is one the most destructive and widespread pests affecting potato plants, and can substantially reduce the potato harvest if left uncontrolled. Potato (Solanum tuberosum) is one of the main food crops in Europe. It is therefore important to investigate the potential for climate change adaptation in Europe by assessing the effects of a temperature increase on CPB and potato crop phenology. The main objective of this thesis is to examine how the inter-annual variability of weather impacts on crop and pest phenology, and their interrelationship under global warming in Europe. We developed phenological models, one for the Colorado potato beetle and one for the potato. The models were developed to assess potential effects of a warmer climate on timing of i) CPB emergence after winter hibernation, ii) voltinism, iii) diapause, iv) food availability (e.g. potato model based on different temperature response functions) and finally v) crop-pest synchrony over Europe. We calculated the timing of completed development of the first and second CPB generation, and assessed the geographical and inter-annual variation in the number of generations per year. The results show that two generations per year may occur more frequently at the current distribution border at 55°N, increasing the risk of northward migration to the Scandinavian countries. In this region, the current climate is not warm enough to sustain the completed development of one generation in all years, and the region does not host a permanent population. For the potato, the model was parameterised on the basis of three planting dates, which were used to assess the management impact on the timing of emergence and maturation of both early and late potato. The estimates of phenological development were assessed by comparing two developmental thresholds (0°C and +2°C) and three temperature response functions. The results show that a linear temperature response function is essentially sufficient for current climate conditions in northern Europe, so optimum and upper thresholds should be considered in climate change impact assessments to predict realistic growth. The model was run with temperature data bias corrected according to quantile mapping method, and indicated a slightly higher risk of temperature stress than the corresponding runs with temperature data corrected by linear scaling. In conclusion that ensembles approach, using data from more than one climate model, can reduce the epistemic uncertainty. This study also highlights the importance of knowledge about species-specific temperature response and reliability of climate model data in order to reduce the uncertainties. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
supervisor
opponent
  • Carter, Timothy, Finish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
organization
publishing date
type
Thesis
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Colorado potato beetle, climate change, day length, degree day model, frost damage, distribution, temperature, potato, regional climate model, synchrony
pages
168 pages
publisher
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University
defense location
Världen auditorium, Geocentrum I, Sölvegatan 10, 223 62, Lund Sweden
defense date
2015-06-12 10:00
ISBN
978-91-85793-51-8
978-91-85793-50-1 (print)
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
a3e635a2-979a-407c-ac3c-af170337ee96 (old id 5424141)
date added to LUP
2015-05-20 11:07:33
date last changed
2016-09-19 08:45:15
@phdthesis{a3e635a2-979a-407c-ac3c-af170337ee96,
  abstract     = {European agriculture is facing the challenge of managing the impact of climate change on food security. Agriculture in a northern temperate climate is likely to benefit from higher temperature and longer growing season while, in the south, crop productivity is likely to decline. Such changes in climate could also affect the population dynamics of insect pests. The Colorado potato beetle (CPB) is one the most destructive and widespread pests affecting potato plants, and can substantially reduce the potato harvest if left uncontrolled. Potato (Solanum tuberosum) is one of the main food crops in Europe. It is therefore important to investigate the potential for climate change adaptation in Europe by assessing the effects of a temperature increase on CPB and potato crop phenology. The main objective of this thesis is to examine how the inter-annual variability of weather impacts on crop and pest phenology, and their interrelationship under global warming in Europe. We developed phenological models, one for the Colorado potato beetle and one for the potato. The models were developed to assess potential effects of a warmer climate on timing of i) CPB emergence after winter hibernation, ii) voltinism, iii) diapause, iv) food availability (e.g. potato model based on different temperature response functions) and finally v) crop-pest synchrony over Europe. We calculated the timing of completed development of the first and second CPB generation, and assessed the geographical and inter-annual variation in the number of generations per year. The results show that two generations per year may occur more frequently at the current distribution border at 55°N, increasing the risk of northward migration to the Scandinavian countries. In this region, the current climate is not warm enough to sustain the completed development of one generation in all years, and the region does not host a permanent population. For the potato, the model was parameterised on the basis of three planting dates, which were used to assess the management impact on the timing of emergence and maturation of both early and late potato. The estimates of phenological development were assessed by comparing two developmental thresholds (0°C and +2°C) and three temperature response functions. The results show that a linear temperature response function is essentially sufficient for current climate conditions in northern Europe, so optimum and upper thresholds should be considered in climate change impact assessments to predict realistic growth. The model was run with temperature data bias corrected according to quantile mapping method, and indicated a slightly higher risk of temperature stress than the corresponding runs with temperature data corrected by linear scaling. In conclusion that ensembles approach, using data from more than one climate model, can reduce the epistemic uncertainty. This study also highlights the importance of knowledge about species-specific temperature response and reliability of climate model data in order to reduce the uncertainties.},
  author       = {Pulatov, Bakhtiyor},
  isbn         = {978-91-85793-51-8},
  keyword      = {Colorado potato beetle,climate change,day length,degree day model,frost damage,distribution,temperature,potato,regional climate model,synchrony},
  language     = {eng},
  pages        = {168},
  publisher    = {Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University},
  school       = {Lund University},
  title        = {Potential impact of climate change on European agriculture: a case study of potato and Colorado potato beetle},
  year         = {2015},
}