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Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China

Cai, Zipan LU ; Wang, Bo ; Cong, Cong and Cvetkovic, Vladimir (2020) In Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 47(8). p.1380-1396
Abstract
Although urban scenario planning is widely applied for exploring various directions of urban development, it often has high requirements on the medium of quantitative information analysis and transformation. Thus, this study establishes a method of combining scenario planning with a spatial dynamic planning support system to predict urban growth. Specifically, a scenario-based spatial dynamic modelling method is integrated with the information module of planning policy for better decision support. The integrated modelling method is applied for an actual urban land use planning case of Nanjing, an evolving city in China. The spatial forms of future urban land use are simulated under four different pre-set policy scenarios. The differences... (More)
Although urban scenario planning is widely applied for exploring various directions of urban development, it often has high requirements on the medium of quantitative information analysis and transformation. Thus, this study establishes a method of combining scenario planning with a spatial dynamic planning support system to predict urban growth. Specifically, a scenario-based spatial dynamic modelling method is integrated with the information module of planning policy for better decision support. The integrated modelling method is applied for an actual urban land use planning case of Nanjing, an evolving city in China. The spatial forms of future urban land use are simulated under four different pre-set policy scenarios. The differences in simulated results under multi-criteria restrictions reveal the effectiveness and practical value of the integration approach. The findings of this study provide policymakers with a process-based approach to test and evaluate ‘what-if’ consequences and help stakeholders reach consensus. (Less)
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author
; ; and
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science
volume
47
issue
8
pages
1380 - 1396
publisher
SAGE Publications
external identifiers
  • scopus:85086846727
ISSN
2399-8083
DOI
10.1177/2399808320934818
language
English
LU publication?
no
id
560a9215-658b-4a53-9405-f1f86a1bb59a
date added to LUP
2025-02-15 20:00:43
date last changed
2025-04-04 15:07:08
@article{560a9215-658b-4a53-9405-f1f86a1bb59a,
  abstract     = {{Although urban scenario planning is widely applied for exploring various directions of urban development, it often has high requirements on the medium of quantitative information analysis and transformation. Thus, this study establishes a method of combining scenario planning with a spatial dynamic planning support system to predict urban growth. Specifically, a scenario-based spatial dynamic modelling method is integrated with the information module of planning policy for better decision support. The integrated modelling method is applied for an actual urban land use planning case of Nanjing, an evolving city in China. The spatial forms of future urban land use are simulated under four different pre-set policy scenarios. The differences in simulated results under multi-criteria restrictions reveal the effectiveness and practical value of the integration approach. The findings of this study provide policymakers with a process-based approach to test and evaluate ‘what-if’ consequences and help stakeholders reach consensus.}},
  author       = {{Cai, Zipan and Wang, Bo and Cong, Cong and Cvetkovic, Vladimir}},
  issn         = {{2399-8083}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  month        = {{06}},
  number       = {{8}},
  pages        = {{1380--1396}},
  publisher    = {{SAGE Publications}},
  series       = {{Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science}},
  title        = {{Spatial dynamic modelling for urban scenario planning: A case study of Nanjing, China}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2399808320934818}},
  doi          = {{10.1177/2399808320934818}},
  volume       = {{47}},
  year         = {{2020}},
}