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The Signal of Solar Storms Embedded in Cosmogenic Radionuclides : Detectability and Uncertainties

Mekhaldi, F. LU ; Adolphi, F. LU ; Herbst, K. LU and Muscheler, R. LU orcid (2021) In Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 126(8).
Abstract

The threat that solar storms pose to our ever-modernizing society has gathered significant interest in the recent past. This is partly due to the discoveries of large peaks in the content of cosmogenic radionuclides such as radiocarbon (14C) in tree rings and beryllium-10 (10Be) and chlorine-36 (36Cl) in ice cores that were linked to extreme solar storms dated to the past millennia. To better assess the threat that they represent, we need to better quantify the relationship between their energy spectrum and their magnitude with respect to the content of the radionuclides that we measure in environmental archives such as ice cores. Here, we model the global production rate that the 59 largest particle... (More)

The threat that solar storms pose to our ever-modernizing society has gathered significant interest in the recent past. This is partly due to the discoveries of large peaks in the content of cosmogenic radionuclides such as radiocarbon (14C) in tree rings and beryllium-10 (10Be) and chlorine-36 (36Cl) in ice cores that were linked to extreme solar storms dated to the past millennia. To better assess the threat that they represent, we need to better quantify the relationship between their energy spectrum and their magnitude with respect to the content of the radionuclides that we measure in environmental archives such as ice cores. Here, we model the global production rate that the 59 largest particle storms coming from the Sun have induced for 10Be, 14C, and 36Cl during the past 70 years. We also consider the deposition flux in 10Be and 36Cl over the high latitudes where all Greenland ice cores are located. Our analysis shows that it is unlikely that any recent solar particle event can be detected in 10Be from ice cores. By relating these values to empirical data from ice cores, we are able to quantify different detection limits and uncertainties for 10Be and 36Cl. Due to different sensitivities to solar energetic particles, we assess that 10Be may only be suitable to detect a limited number of extreme solar storms, while 36Cl is suitable to detect any extreme particle event. This implies that the occurrence-rate estimates of extreme solar storms, based mainly on 14C and 10Be, relate to a small population of potential events.

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author
; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
cosmogenic radionuclides, ice cores, solar particle events, solar storms
in
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics
volume
126
issue
8
article number
e2021JA029351
publisher
Wiley-Blackwell
external identifiers
  • scopus:85113790976
ISSN
2169-9380
DOI
10.1029/2021JA029351
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
5617c949-b801-4c1f-86a7-ffc68a06b5f6
date added to LUP
2021-09-20 15:33:03
date last changed
2023-02-21 10:37:21
@article{5617c949-b801-4c1f-86a7-ffc68a06b5f6,
  abstract     = {{<p>The threat that solar storms pose to our ever-modernizing society has gathered significant interest in the recent past. This is partly due to the discoveries of large peaks in the content of cosmogenic radionuclides such as radiocarbon (<sup>14</sup>C) in tree rings and beryllium-10 (<sup>10</sup>Be) and chlorine-36 (<sup>36</sup>Cl) in ice cores that were linked to extreme solar storms dated to the past millennia. To better assess the threat that they represent, we need to better quantify the relationship between their energy spectrum and their magnitude with respect to the content of the radionuclides that we measure in environmental archives such as ice cores. Here, we model the global production rate that the 59 largest particle storms coming from the Sun have induced for <sup>10</sup>Be, <sup>14</sup>C, and <sup>36</sup>Cl during the past 70 years. We also consider the deposition flux in <sup>10</sup>Be and <sup>36</sup>Cl over the high latitudes where all Greenland ice cores are located. Our analysis shows that it is unlikely that any recent solar particle event can be detected in <sup>10</sup>Be from ice cores. By relating these values to empirical data from ice cores, we are able to quantify different detection limits and uncertainties for <sup>10</sup>Be and <sup>36</sup>Cl. Due to different sensitivities to solar energetic particles, we assess that <sup>10</sup>Be may only be suitable to detect a limited number of extreme solar storms, while <sup>36</sup>Cl is suitable to detect any extreme particle event. This implies that the occurrence-rate estimates of extreme solar storms, based mainly on <sup>14</sup>C and <sup>10</sup>Be, relate to a small population of potential events.</p>}},
  author       = {{Mekhaldi, F. and Adolphi, F. and Herbst, K. and Muscheler, R.}},
  issn         = {{2169-9380}},
  keywords     = {{cosmogenic radionuclides; ice cores; solar particle events; solar storms}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{8}},
  publisher    = {{Wiley-Blackwell}},
  series       = {{Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics}},
  title        = {{The Signal of Solar Storms Embedded in Cosmogenic Radionuclides : Detectability and Uncertainties}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2021JA029351}},
  doi          = {{10.1029/2021JA029351}},
  volume       = {{126}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}