Risk stratification in heart failure decompensation in the community : HEFESTOS score
(2022) In ESC Heart Failure 9(1). p.606-613- Abstract
Aims: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings. Methods and results: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the... (More)
Aims: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings. Methods and results: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5–20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one. Conclusions: The HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode.
(Less)
- author
- author collaboration
- organization
- publishing date
- 2022
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- Decompensation, Heart failure, Primary care, Risk stratification
- in
- ESC Heart Failure
- volume
- 9
- issue
- 1
- pages
- 606 - 613
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- pmid:34811953
- scopus:85119699800
- ISSN
- 2055-5822
- DOI
- 10.1002/ehf2.13707
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.
- id
- 57b484d0-fc9e-475e-8faf-6c801db82de4
- date added to LUP
- 2021-12-03 10:46:32
- date last changed
- 2024-06-15 22:04:31
@article{57b484d0-fc9e-475e-8faf-6c801db82de4,
abstract = {{<p>Aims: Because evidence regarding risk stratification predicting prognosis of patients with heart failure (HF) decompensation attended in primary care is lacking, we developed and externally validated a model to forecast death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an episode of decompensation. The predictive model is based on variables easily obtained in primary care settings. Methods and results: HEFESTOS is a multinational study consisting of a derivation cohort of HF patients recruited in 14 primary healthcare centres in Barcelona and a validation cohort from primary healthcare in 9 other European countries. The derivation and validation cohorts included 561 and 250 patients, respectively. Percentages of women in the derivation and validation cohorts were 56.3% and 47.6% (P = 0.026), respectively. Mean age was 82.2 years (SD 8.03) in the derivation cohort, and 79.3 years (SD 10.3) in the validation one (P = 0.001). HF with preserved ejection fraction represented 72.1% in the derivation cohort and 58.8% in the validation one (P = 0.004). Mortality/hospitalization during the first 30 days after a decompensation episode was 30.5% and 26% (P = 0.225) for the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were performed to develop a score of risk. The identified predictors were worsening of dyspnoea [odds ratio (OR): 2.5; P = 0.001], orthopnoea (OR: 2.16; P = 0.01), paroxysmal nocturnal dyspnoea (OR: 2.25; P = 0.01), crackles (OR: 2.35; P = 0.01), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (OR: 2.11; P = 0.001), oxygen saturation ≤ 90% (OR: 4.98; P < 0.001), heart rate > 100 b.p.m. (OR: 2.72; P = 0.002), and previous hospitalization due to HF (OR: 2.45; P < 0.001). The model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.807, 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.770; 0.845] in the derivation cohort and AUC 0.73, 95% CI: [0.660; 0.808] in the validation one. No significant differences between both cohorts were observed (P = 0.08). Regarding probability of hospitalization/death, three risk groups were defined: low <5%, medium 5–20%, and high >20%. Outcome incidence was 2.7% for the low-risk group, 12.8% for medium risk, and 46.2% for high risk in the derivation cohort, and 9.1%, 12.9%, and 39.6% in the validation one. Conclusions: The HEFESTOS score, based on variables easily accessible in a community setting and validated in an external European cohort, properly predicted the risk of death/hospitalization during the first 30 days after an HF decompensation episode.</p>}},
author = {{Verdu-Rotellar, José María and Abellana, Rosa and Vaillant-Roussel, Helene and Gril Jevsek, Lea and Assenova, Radost and Kasuba Lazic, Djurdjica and Torsza, Peter and Glynn, Liam George and Lingner, Heidrun and Demurtas, Jacopo and Thulesius, Hans and Muñoz, Miguel Angel}},
issn = {{2055-5822}},
keywords = {{Decompensation; Heart failure; Primary care; Risk stratification}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{1}},
pages = {{606--613}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{ESC Heart Failure}},
title = {{Risk stratification in heart failure decompensation in the community : HEFESTOS score}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.13707}},
doi = {{10.1002/ehf2.13707}},
volume = {{9}},
year = {{2022}},
}