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Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

Olesen, JE; Carter, TR; Diaz-Ambrona, CH; Fronzek, S; Heidmann, T; Hickler, Thomas LU ; Holt, T; Minguez, MI; Morales, P and Palutikov, J, et al. (2007) In Climatic Change 81(Suppl. 1). p.123-143
Abstract
The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs)... (More)
The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961-1990 and 2071-2 100 under the IPCC SIZES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO2 concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30-50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35-54%) were projected in Dorthem European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO2 concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to preserit-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios. (Less)
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published
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Climatic Change
volume
81
issue
Suppl. 1
pages
123 - 143
publisher
Springer
external identifiers
  • wos:000247529400007
  • scopus:34248149007
ISSN
0165-0009
DOI
10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1
language
English
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yes
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c362b966-5e67-4898-ab66-114efc69d467 (old id 583966)
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2007-12-17 10:00:13
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2017-10-29 03:28:29
@article{c362b966-5e67-4898-ab66-114efc69d467,
  abstract     = {The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961-1990 and 2071-2 100 under the IPCC SIZES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO2 concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30-50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35-54%) were projected in Dorthem European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO2 concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to preserit-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.},
  author       = {Olesen, JE and Carter, TR and Diaz-Ambrona, CH and Fronzek, S and Heidmann, T and Hickler, Thomas and Holt, T and Minguez, MI and Morales, P and Palutikov, J and Quemada, M and M, Ruiz-Ramos and Rubaek, GH and Sau, F and Smith, Benjamin and Sykes, Martin},
  issn         = {0165-0009},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {Suppl. 1},
  pages        = {123--143},
  publisher    = {Springer},
  series       = {Climatic Change},
  title        = {Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1},
  volume       = {81},
  year         = {2007},
}