Advancing Systemic Risk Assessment for Complex, Interdependent Systems : A Research Agenda
Logan, Tom ; Rachunok, B. ; Hardaway, K. ; Bristow, D. ; Reilly, A. ; Johnson, D. LU ; Johansson, J. LU
; Cremen, G.
; Boakye, J.
and Schweizer, P.
(2026)
In Risk Analysis
46(5).
- Abstract
Engineering risk assessment has traditionally focused on direct impacts to individual assets or systems. However, as society's most notable risks increasingly stem from complex, interdependent systems, conventional methods fail to capture the cascading consequences and deepening uncertainty. Addressing this gap requires developing or extending assessment methods. To guide such development and align research efforts, this paper introduces a taxonomy of risk assessment methods. The taxonomy classifies methods by their capability to assess different types of consequences and systemic behaviors. Tier 1 methods can assess direct, localized impacts; Tier 2 methods also capture cascading consequences in interconnected systems; Tier 3 methods... (More)
Engineering risk assessment has traditionally focused on direct impacts to individual assets or systems. However, as society's most notable risks increasingly stem from complex, interdependent systems, conventional methods fail to capture the cascading consequences and deepening uncertainty. Addressing this gap requires developing or extending assessment methods. To guide such development and align research efforts, this paper introduces a taxonomy of risk assessment methods. The taxonomy classifies methods by their capability to assess different types of consequences and systemic behaviors. Tier 1 methods can assess direct, localized impacts; Tier 2 methods also capture cascading consequences in interconnected systems; Tier 3 methods also address emergent, transformative, and uncertain dynamics. We identify key system and knowledge characteristics that challenge existing methods and outline research priorities necessary to advance systemic risk assessment: Analyzing consequences, structuring uncertainty, evaluating trade-offs, strengthening causal inference, ensuring defensibility, and communicating results. This agenda aims to guide future research towards risk assessment methods suitable for the systemic risk challenges society increasingly faces.
(Less)
- author
- Logan, Tom
; Rachunok, B.
; Hardaway, K.
; Bristow, D.
; Reilly, A.
; Johnson, D.
LU
; Johansson, J.
LU
; Cremen, G.
; Boakye, J.
and Schweizer, P.
- organization
- publishing date
- 2026-05
- type
- Contribution to journal
- publication status
- published
- subject
- keywords
- cascading effects, complex systems, interdependencies, risk assessment methods, systemic risk, uncertainty
- in
- Risk Analysis
- volume
- 46
- issue
- 5
- article number
- e70243
- publisher
- John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- external identifiers
-
- scopus:105035597671
- pmid:41978933
- ISSN
- 0272-4332
- DOI
- 10.1111/risa.70243
- language
- English
- LU publication?
- yes
- additional info
- Publisher Copyright: © 2026 The Author(s). Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.
- id
- 5abc9860-68f4-4c2b-beb0-eff29b9c374d
- date added to LUP
- 2026-04-29 16:41:32
- date last changed
- 2026-06-10 20:08:58
@article{5abc9860-68f4-4c2b-beb0-eff29b9c374d,
abstract = {{<p>Engineering risk assessment has traditionally focused on direct impacts to individual assets or systems. However, as society's most notable risks increasingly stem from complex, interdependent systems, conventional methods fail to capture the cascading consequences and deepening uncertainty. Addressing this gap requires developing or extending assessment methods. To guide such development and align research efforts, this paper introduces a taxonomy of risk assessment methods. The taxonomy classifies methods by their capability to assess different types of consequences and systemic behaviors. Tier 1 methods can assess direct, localized impacts; Tier 2 methods also capture cascading consequences in interconnected systems; Tier 3 methods also address emergent, transformative, and uncertain dynamics. We identify key system and knowledge characteristics that challenge existing methods and outline research priorities necessary to advance systemic risk assessment: Analyzing consequences, structuring uncertainty, evaluating trade-offs, strengthening causal inference, ensuring defensibility, and communicating results. This agenda aims to guide future research towards risk assessment methods suitable for the systemic risk challenges society increasingly faces.</p>}},
author = {{Logan, Tom and Rachunok, B. and Hardaway, K. and Bristow, D. and Reilly, A. and Johnson, D. and Johansson, J. and Cremen, G. and Boakye, J. and Schweizer, P.}},
issn = {{0272-4332}},
keywords = {{cascading effects; complex systems; interdependencies; risk assessment methods; systemic risk; uncertainty}},
language = {{eng}},
number = {{5}},
publisher = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
series = {{Risk Analysis}},
title = {{Advancing Systemic Risk Assessment for Complex, Interdependent Systems : A Research Agenda}},
url = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.70243}},
doi = {{10.1111/risa.70243}},
volume = {{46}},
year = {{2026}},
}