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Kostnad-Nytta av Industrins Brandskyddsåtgärder- En pilotstudie av beslutsanalysens faktiska förutsättningar

Mattsson, Magnus (1997) In LUTVDG/TVBB--3098--SE 3098.
Abstract
The aim of this report has been to investigate weather the decision analysis methodology fulfils the demands from the industrial decision-makers concerning the most cost-effective fire protection alternative. The report also contains a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate which parameters that has great importance to the

validity of the model.



A fictive example has been defined; Termoplast AB. A decision analysis has then been carried out with estimated inputs. These inputs have some uncertainties part of the estimation that has been done and part of reality factors. To show how these uncertainties effect the model a deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis has been carried out. Observe that the... (More)
The aim of this report has been to investigate weather the decision analysis methodology fulfils the demands from the industrial decision-makers concerning the most cost-effective fire protection alternative. The report also contains a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate which parameters that has great importance to the

validity of the model.



A fictive example has been defined; Termoplast AB. A decision analysis has then been carried out with estimated inputs. These inputs have some uncertainties part of the estimation that has been done and part of reality factors. To show how these uncertainties effect the model a deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis has been carried out. Observe that the benefit in this report is the same as a minimisation of the risk cost

consisting of insurance premiums, annual cost of fire protection and expected values of deductibles.



The decision analysis shows that the most cost-effective alternative is sprinkler with a deductible level of 100 000 Skr. What is of more importance is that the sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated losses (both direct and indirect) and statistical basic data have great importance to the validity of the model. Further more the insurance premium and the annual cost of fire protection have no or very little importance.



The second part of the report consists of a summary and an identification of problems concerning the underlying models to predict both losses and occurrence of fires. Finally a suggestion of some future research areas has been given. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
publishing date
type
Book/Report
publication status
published
subject
keywords
Cost-benefit, decision analysis, risk assessment, thermal damage, non-thermal damage, indirect losses, computer models, industrial fire protection, decision-making
in
LUTVDG/TVBB--3098--SE
volume
3098
pages
110 pages
publisher
Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University
ISSN
1102-8246
language
Swedish
LU publication?
no
id
d3ad21af-143f-4603-ae5e-455fe4b1489b (old id 605469)
date added to LUP
2008-11-10 14:37:21
date last changed
2016-06-29 09:14:04
@techreport{d3ad21af-143f-4603-ae5e-455fe4b1489b,
  abstract     = {The aim of this report has been to investigate weather the decision analysis methodology fulfils the demands from the industrial decision-makers concerning the most cost-effective fire protection alternative. The report also contains a sensitivity analysis to demonstrate which parameters that has great importance to the<br/><br>
validity of the model.<br/><br>
<br/><br>
A fictive example has been defined; Termoplast AB. A decision analysis has then been carried out with estimated inputs. These inputs have some uncertainties part of the estimation that has been done and part of reality factors. To show how these uncertainties effect the model a deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis has been carried out. Observe that the benefit in this report is the same as a minimisation of the risk cost<br/><br>
consisting of insurance premiums, annual cost of fire protection and expected values of deductibles. <br/><br>
<br/><br>
The decision analysis shows that the most cost-effective alternative is sprinkler with a deductible level of 100 000 Skr. What is of more importance is that the sensitivity analysis shows that the estimated losses (both direct and indirect) and statistical basic data have great importance to the validity of the model. Further more the insurance premium and the annual cost of fire protection have no or very little importance.<br/><br>
<br/><br>
The second part of the report consists of a summary and an identification of problems concerning the underlying models to predict both losses and occurrence of fires. Finally a suggestion of some future research areas has been given.},
  author       = {Mattsson, Magnus},
  institution  = {Department of Fire Safety Engineering and Systems Safety, Lund University},
  issn         = {1102-8246},
  keyword      = {Cost-benefit,decision analysis,risk assessment,thermal damage,non-thermal damage,indirect
losses,computer models,industrial fire protection,decision-making},
  language     = {swe},
  pages        = {110},
  series       = {LUTVDG/TVBB--3098--SE},
  title        = {Kostnad-Nytta av Industrins Brandskyddsåtgärder- En pilotstudie av beslutsanalysens faktiska förutsättningar},
  volume       = {3098},
  year         = {1997},
}