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Experiences matter: A longitudinal study of individual-level sources of declining social trust in the United States

Mewes, Jan LU orcid ; Fairbrother, Malcolm ; Giordano, Nick LU ; Wu, Cary and Wilkes, Rima (2021) In Social Science Research 95.
Abstract
The US has experienced a substantial decline in social trust in recent decades. Surprisingly few studies analyze whether individual-level explanations can account for this decrease. We use three-wave panel data from the General Social Survey (2006–2014) to study the effects of four possible individual-level sources of changes in social trust: job loss, social ties, income, and confidence in political institutions. Findings from fixed-effects linear regression models suggest that all but social ties matter. We then use 1973–2018 GSS data to predict trust based on observed values for unemployment, confidence in institutions, and satisfaction with income, versus an alternative counterfactual scenario in which the values of those three... (More)
The US has experienced a substantial decline in social trust in recent decades. Surprisingly few studies analyze whether individual-level explanations can account for this decrease. We use three-wave panel data from the General Social Survey (2006–2014) to study the effects of four possible individual-level sources of changes in social trust: job loss, social ties, income, and confidence in political institutions. Findings from fixed-effects linear regression models suggest that all but social ties matter. We then use 1973–2018 GSS data to predict trust based on observed values for unemployment, confidence in institutions, and satisfaction with income, versus an alternative counterfactual scenario in which the values of those three predictors are held constant at their mean levels in the early 1970s. Predicted values from these two scenarios differ substantially, suggesting that decreasing confidence in institutions and increasing unemployment scarring may explain about half of the observed decline in US social trust. (Less)
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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
in
Social Science Research
volume
95
article number
102537
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • scopus:85100646339
  • pmid:33653587
ISSN
0049-089X
DOI
10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102537
project
Three Worlds of Trust: A Longitudinal Study of Welfare States, Life-Course Risks, and Social Trust
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
62dbbc20-df8d-4feb-9acb-11b46c08e4b0
date added to LUP
2021-02-11 11:27:48
date last changed
2022-06-27 12:07:27
@article{62dbbc20-df8d-4feb-9acb-11b46c08e4b0,
  abstract     = {{The US has experienced a substantial decline in social trust in recent decades. Surprisingly few studies analyze whether individual-level explanations can account for this decrease. We use three-wave panel data from the General Social Survey (2006–2014) to study the effects of four possible individual-level sources of changes in social trust: job loss, social ties, income, and confidence in political institutions. Findings from fixed-effects linear regression models suggest that all but social ties matter. We then use 1973–2018 GSS data to predict trust based on observed values for unemployment, confidence in institutions, and satisfaction with income, versus an alternative counterfactual scenario in which the values of those three predictors are held constant at their mean levels in the early 1970s. Predicted values from these two scenarios differ substantially, suggesting that decreasing confidence in institutions and increasing unemployment scarring may explain about half of the observed decline in US social trust.}},
  author       = {{Mewes, Jan and Fairbrother, Malcolm and Giordano, Nick and Wu, Cary and Wilkes, Rima}},
  issn         = {{0049-089X}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  publisher    = {{Elsevier}},
  series       = {{Social Science Research}},
  title        = {{Experiences matter: A longitudinal study of individual-level sources of declining social trust in the United States}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102537}},
  doi          = {{10.1016/j.ssresearch.2021.102537}},
  volume       = {{95}},
  year         = {{2021}},
}