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Consistent and contrasting decadal Arctic sea ice thickness predictions from a highly optimized sea ice model

Miller, Paul LU ; Laxon, Seymour W. and Feltham, Daniel L. (2007) In Journal of Geophysical Research 112(C7).
Abstract
Decadal hindcast simulations of Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness made by a modern dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and forced independently by both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets are compared for the first time. Using comprehensive data sets of observations made between 1979 and 2001 of sea ice thickness, draft, extent, and speeds, we find that it is possible to tune model parameters to give satisfactory agreement with observed data, thereby highlighting the skill of modern sea ice models, though the parameter values chosen differ according to the model forcing used. We find a consistent decreasing trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness since 1979, and a steady decline in the Eastern Arctic Ocean over the full 40-year... (More)
Decadal hindcast simulations of Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness made by a modern dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and forced independently by both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets are compared for the first time. Using comprehensive data sets of observations made between 1979 and 2001 of sea ice thickness, draft, extent, and speeds, we find that it is possible to tune model parameters to give satisfactory agreement with observed data, thereby highlighting the skill of modern sea ice models, though the parameter values chosen differ according to the model forcing used. We find a consistent decreasing trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness since 1979, and a steady decline in the Eastern Arctic Ocean over the full 40-year period of comparison that accelerated after 1980, but the predictions of Western Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness between 1962 and 1980 differ substantially. The origins of differing thickness trends and variability were isolated not to parameter differences but to differences in the forcing fields applied, and in how they are applied. It is argued that uncertainty, differences and errors in sea ice model forcing sets complicate the use of models to determine the exact causes of the recently reported decline in Arctic sea ice thickness, but help in the determination of robust features if the models are tuned appropriately against observations. (Less)
Please use this url to cite or link to this publication:
author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
sea ice
in
Journal of Geophysical Research
volume
112
issue
C7
publisher
American Geophysical Union
external identifiers
  • wos:000248286900002
  • scopus:34548626872
ISSN
2156-2202
DOI
10.1029/2006JC0038
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
e113330a-01cb-402f-9a97-294495502abe (old id 645654)
alternative location
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007.../2006JC003855.shtml
date added to LUP
2007-12-18 11:05:19
date last changed
2017-01-01 04:40:56
@article{e113330a-01cb-402f-9a97-294495502abe,
  abstract     = {Decadal hindcast simulations of Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness made by a modern dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and forced independently by both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets are compared for the first time. Using comprehensive data sets of observations made between 1979 and 2001 of sea ice thickness, draft, extent, and speeds, we find that it is possible to tune model parameters to give satisfactory agreement with observed data, thereby highlighting the skill of modern sea ice models, though the parameter values chosen differ according to the model forcing used. We find a consistent decreasing trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness since 1979, and a steady decline in the Eastern Arctic Ocean over the full 40-year period of comparison that accelerated after 1980, but the predictions of Western Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness between 1962 and 1980 differ substantially. The origins of differing thickness trends and variability were isolated not to parameter differences but to differences in the forcing fields applied, and in how they are applied. It is argued that uncertainty, differences and errors in sea ice model forcing sets complicate the use of models to determine the exact causes of the recently reported decline in Arctic sea ice thickness, but help in the determination of robust features if the models are tuned appropriately against observations.},
  author       = {Miller, Paul and Laxon, Seymour W. and Feltham, Daniel L.},
  issn         = {2156-2202},
  keyword      = {sea ice},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {C7},
  publisher    = {American Geophysical Union},
  series       = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
  title        = {Consistent and contrasting decadal Arctic sea ice thickness predictions from a highly optimized sea ice model},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006JC0038},
  volume       = {112},
  year         = {2007},
}