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Streamflow Elasticity to Precipitation Distribution and Potential Evapotranspiration Across South America

Kolling Neto, A. LU ; Paiva, R. C.D.de ; Siqueira, V. A. ; Brêda, J. P.L.F. and Collischonn, W. (2026) In Hydrological Processes 40(2).
Abstract

This study examines the sensitivity of mean, high and low streamflows (i.e., Q elasticity) to changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across South America. The response to P was further assessed by intensifying its seasonal and daily distribution, specifically by increasing (decreasing) P during wet (dry) periods and high (low) events, while maintaining the annual P volume unchanged. Simulations from a continental-scale hydrological model indicate that Q exhibits a stronger response to increases in P than to decreases. Arid and semi-arid regions exhibited the highest Q elasticities and amplification of changes in P and PET, whereas in humid regions these effects were lower in magnitude. PET impacts were... (More)

This study examines the sensitivity of mean, high and low streamflows (i.e., Q elasticity) to changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across South America. The response to P was further assessed by intensifying its seasonal and daily distribution, specifically by increasing (decreasing) P during wet (dry) periods and high (low) events, while maintaining the annual P volume unchanged. Simulations from a continental-scale hydrological model indicate that Q exhibits a stronger response to increases in P than to decreases. Arid and semi-arid regions exhibited the highest Q elasticities and amplification of changes in P and PET, whereas in humid regions these effects were lower in magnitude. PET impacts were strongest on low flows (Qlow) in the Caatinga and on mean/high flows (Qmean/Qhigh) in Pantanal and Pampa biomes. The Q response to P depends not only on the amount of rainfall but also on how and when it occurs. Seasonal intensification reduced Qlow (median −6%) and increased Qmean (+4%) and Qhigh (+12%), whereas daily intensification yielded −6%, +3% and +6% for Qlow, Qmean and Qhigh, respectively, in response to a 20% alteration in P distribution. Sensitivity to seasonal P distribution scaled with baseline seasonality, and unimodal regimes exhibited larger seasonal elasticities than bimodal regimes. Overall, in seasonal regions, the seasonal redistribution of P has stronger effects on extreme flows. Accordingly, streamflow elasticity provides a quantitative framework to assess regional and biome-specific responses to climate variability and to inform projections of hydrological change across watersheds.

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author
; ; ; and
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
extremes flow, MGB-SA, potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, sensitivity, variability
in
Hydrological Processes
volume
40
issue
2
article number
e70386
publisher
John Wiley & Sons Inc.
external identifiers
  • scopus:105029221313
ISSN
0885-6087
DOI
10.1002/hyp.70386
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
64cae195-449c-4750-ae07-37b35d5f8645
date added to LUP
2026-02-18 15:12:10
date last changed
2026-02-18 15:12:41
@article{64cae195-449c-4750-ae07-37b35d5f8645,
  abstract     = {{<p>This study examines the sensitivity of mean, high and low streamflows (i.e., Q elasticity) to changes in precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) across South America. The response to P was further assessed by intensifying its seasonal and daily distribution, specifically by increasing (decreasing) P during wet (dry) periods and high (low) events, while maintaining the annual P volume unchanged. Simulations from a continental-scale hydrological model indicate that Q exhibits a stronger response to increases in P than to decreases. Arid and semi-arid regions exhibited the highest Q elasticities and amplification of changes in P and PET, whereas in humid regions these effects were lower in magnitude. PET impacts were strongest on low flows (Q<sub>low</sub>) in the Caatinga and on mean/high flows (Q<sub>mean</sub>/Q<sub>high</sub>) in Pantanal and Pampa biomes. The Q response to P depends not only on the amount of rainfall but also on how and when it occurs. Seasonal intensification reduced Q<sub>low</sub> (median −6%) and increased Q<sub>mean</sub> (+4%) and Q<sub>high</sub> (+12%), whereas daily intensification yielded −6%, +3% and +6% for Q<sub>low</sub>, Q<sub>mean</sub> and Q<sub>high</sub>, respectively, in response to a 20% alteration in P distribution. Sensitivity to seasonal P distribution scaled with baseline seasonality, and unimodal regimes exhibited larger seasonal elasticities than bimodal regimes. Overall, in seasonal regions, the seasonal redistribution of P has stronger effects on extreme flows. Accordingly, streamflow elasticity provides a quantitative framework to assess regional and biome-specific responses to climate variability and to inform projections of hydrological change across watersheds.</p>}},
  author       = {{Kolling Neto, A. and Paiva, R. C.D.de and Siqueira, V. A. and Brêda, J. P.L.F. and Collischonn, W.}},
  issn         = {{0885-6087}},
  keywords     = {{extremes flow; MGB-SA; potential evapotranspiration; precipitation; sensitivity; variability}},
  language     = {{eng}},
  number       = {{2}},
  publisher    = {{John Wiley & Sons Inc.}},
  series       = {{Hydrological Processes}},
  title        = {{Streamflow Elasticity to Precipitation Distribution and Potential Evapotranspiration Across South America}},
  url          = {{http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70386}},
  doi          = {{10.1002/hyp.70386}},
  volume       = {{40}},
  year         = {{2026}},
}