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Relating forest damage data to the wind field from high-resolution RCM simulations: Case study of Anatol striking Sweden in December 1999

Nilsson, Carin LU ; Goyette, S and Bärring, Lars LU (2007) In Global and Planetary Change 57(1-2). p.161-176
Abstract
Forestry is of major economical importance in Europe, and recent devastating windstorms have pinpointed the vulnerability of this economic sector to windstorms. Forest damage is an important economic issue at a country level and may become even of larger concern under future conditions following global warming. An underlying question is to what extent the storm damage is due to changes in the wind climate compared to the effect of changes in forest management practices? In this paper, the first part of this rather complex problem is tackled. By using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, CRCM, including a physically based gust parameterisation scheme, NCEPNCAR reanalysis wind fields for the windstorm Anatol, on December 3-4, 1999, were... (More)
Forestry is of major economical importance in Europe, and recent devastating windstorms have pinpointed the vulnerability of this economic sector to windstorms. Forest damage is an important economic issue at a country level and may become even of larger concern under future conditions following global warming. An underlying question is to what extent the storm damage is due to changes in the wind climate compared to the effect of changes in forest management practices? In this paper, the first part of this rather complex problem is tackled. By using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, CRCM, including a physically based gust parameterisation scheme, NCEPNCAR reanalysis wind fields for the windstorm Anatol, on December 3-4, 1999, were downscaled, into a nested set-up, to 2 km resolution. The aim is to relate the simulated storm wind field to the observed distribution of storm damaged forests in Scania in southern Sweden, as a first methodological step towards analysing the effect of future windstorms in Swedish forests at the highest spatial resolution one can afford nowadays. Our results show that the CRCM produced realistic wind field simulations, compared to station observations, of the windstorm event in 1999. The simulated winds were underestimated at the coasts, but in congruence with inland observations. Most of the damaged forest stands were located on south-westerly (SW) slopes, which indicated a south-westerly wind during the wind throw process. This SW wind direction was evident in the early phase of the simulated storm, but then changed into a westerly flow, at an earlier stage than the true observations specified. Further, most damage occurred in the areas of simulated maximum wind speed greater than 30 m s. To conclude, the CRCM has proven to be a useful tool to realistically simulate a forest damaging storm event. Hence, the model could be used for further study cases, preferably driven by a GCM, in order to reveal a greater understanding about recent storms, which in turn helps us evaluate future climate change driven storm conditions. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. (Less)
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author
organization
publishing date
type
Contribution to journal
publication status
published
subject
keywords
wind damage, wind throw, forest, windstorm, winter storm, gust, RCM, wind, storm damage
in
Global and Planetary Change
volume
57
issue
1-2
pages
161 - 176
publisher
Elsevier
external identifiers
  • wos:000247086600013
  • scopus:34247598921
ISSN
1872-6364
DOI
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.011
language
English
LU publication?
yes
id
71c28953-605f-4550-abe1-e5e686eac753 (old id 651064)
date added to LUP
2007-12-18 17:10:07
date last changed
2017-10-22 03:50:49
@article{71c28953-605f-4550-abe1-e5e686eac753,
  abstract     = {Forestry is of major economical importance in Europe, and recent devastating windstorms have pinpointed the vulnerability of this economic sector to windstorms. Forest damage is an important economic issue at a country level and may become even of larger concern under future conditions following global warming. An underlying question is to what extent the storm damage is due to changes in the wind climate compared to the effect of changes in forest management practices? In this paper, the first part of this rather complex problem is tackled. By using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, CRCM, including a physically based gust parameterisation scheme, NCEPNCAR reanalysis wind fields for the windstorm Anatol, on December 3-4, 1999, were downscaled, into a nested set-up, to 2 km resolution. The aim is to relate the simulated storm wind field to the observed distribution of storm damaged forests in Scania in southern Sweden, as a first methodological step towards analysing the effect of future windstorms in Swedish forests at the highest spatial resolution one can afford nowadays. Our results show that the CRCM produced realistic wind field simulations, compared to station observations, of the windstorm event in 1999. The simulated winds were underestimated at the coasts, but in congruence with inland observations. Most of the damaged forest stands were located on south-westerly (SW) slopes, which indicated a south-westerly wind during the wind throw process. This SW wind direction was evident in the early phase of the simulated storm, but then changed into a westerly flow, at an earlier stage than the true observations specified. Further, most damage occurred in the areas of simulated maximum wind speed greater than 30 m s. To conclude, the CRCM has proven to be a useful tool to realistically simulate a forest damaging storm event. Hence, the model could be used for further study cases, preferably driven by a GCM, in order to reveal a greater understanding about recent storms, which in turn helps us evaluate future climate change driven storm conditions. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.},
  author       = {Nilsson, Carin and Goyette, S and Bärring, Lars},
  issn         = {1872-6364},
  keyword      = {wind damage,wind throw,forest,windstorm,winter storm,gust,RCM,wind,storm damage},
  language     = {eng},
  number       = {1-2},
  pages        = {161--176},
  publisher    = {Elsevier},
  series       = {Global and Planetary Change},
  title        = {Relating forest damage data to the wind field from high-resolution RCM simulations: Case study of Anatol striking Sweden in December 1999},
  url          = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.011},
  volume       = {57},
  year         = {2007},
}